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Causal inference requires evaluating models on balanced distributions between treatment and control groups, while training data often exhibits imbalance due to historical decision-making policies. Most conventional statistical methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-21 Akira Tanimoto

We address a long-standing open problem in risk theory, namely the optimal strategy to pay out dividends from an insurance surplus process, if the dividend rate can never be decreased. The optimality criterion here is to maximize the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-08 Hansjoerg Albrecher , Pablo Azcue , Nora Muler

Distributionally robust control is a well-studied framework for optimal decision making under uncertainty, with the objective of minimizing an expected cost function over control actions, assuming the most adverse probability distribution…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-12 Alexandros E. Tzikas , Lukas Fiechtner , Arec Jamgochian , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

To address the issue of inaccurate distributions in practical stochastic systems, a minimax linear-quadratic control method is proposed using the Wasserstein metric. Our method aims to construct a control policy that is robust against…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-26 Kihyun Kim , Insoon Yang

We study an infinite-horizon optimal investment, consumption and insurance problem for an economic agent who consumes a perishable and a durable good. The agent trades in a risk-free asset, a risky asset, and a durable good whose price…

General Economics · Economics 2025-12-09 Aleksandar Arandjelović , Ryle S. Perera , Pavel V. Shevchenko , Tak Kuen Siu , Jin Sun

We study an optimal dividend problem for an insurer who simultaneously controls investment weights in a financial market, liability ratio in the insurance business, and dividend payout rate. The insurer seeks an optimal strategy to maximize…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-27 Zhuo Jin , Zuo Quan Xu , Bin Zou

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has become a powerful framework for estimation under uncertainty, offering strong out-of-sample performance and principled regularization. In this paper, we propose a DRO-based method for linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Liviu Aolaritei , Soroosh Shafiee , Florian Dörfler

This paper focuses on the Wasserstein distributionally robust mean-lower semi-absolute deviation (DR-MLSAD) model, where the ambiguity set is a Wasserstein ball centered on the empirical distribution of the training sample. This model can…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-04 Weimi Zhou , Yong-Jin Liu

We present a distributionally robust formulation of a stochastic optimization problem for non-i.i.d vector autoregressive data. We use the Wasserstein distance to define robustness in the space of distributions and we show, using duality…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-10 Xialiang Dou , Mihai Anitescu

We revisit Merton's continuous-time portfolio selection through a data-driven, distributionally robust lens. Our aim is to tap the benefits of frequent trading over short horizons while acknowledging that drift is hard to pin down, whereas…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Jose Blanchet , Jiayi Cheng , Hao Liu , Yang Liu

We study the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) in a dynamic context where the model uncertainty is captured by penalizing potential models in function of their adapted Wasserstein distance to a given reference model. We consider…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Yifan Jiang

We consider a data-driven robust hypothesis test where the optimal test will minimize the worst-case performance regarding distributions that are close to the empirical distributions with respect to the Wasserstein distance. This leads to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Liyan Xie , Rui Gao , Yao Xie

We use the randomization idea and proof techniques from optimal transport to study optimal reinsurance problems. We start by providing conditions for a class of problems that allow us to characterize the support of optimal treaties, and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-11-04 Beatrice Acciaio , Hansjörg Albrecher , Brandon García Flores

We study a distributionally robust optimization formulation (i.e., a min-max game) for two representative problems in Bayesian nonparametric estimation: Gaussian process regression and, more generally, linear inverse problems. Our…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Xuhui Zhang , Jose Blanchet , Youssef Marzouk , Viet Anh Nguyen , Sven Wang

We study distributionally robust online learning, where a risk-averse learner updates decisions sequentially to guard against worst-case distributions drawn from a Wasserstein ambiguity set centered at past observations. While this paradigm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Guixian Chen , Salar Fattahi , Soroosh Shafiee

We investigate the problem of synthesizing distributionally robust control policies for stochastic systems under safety and reach-avoid specifications. Using a game-theoretical framework, we consider the setting where the probability…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-04 Yu Chen , Yuda Li , Shaoyuan Li , Xiang Yin

In this paper we wish to tackle stochastic programs affected by ambiguity about the probability law that governs their uncertain parameters. Using optimal transport theory, we construct an ambiguity set that exploits the knowledge about the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-15 Adrián Esteban-Pérez , Juan M. Morales

This paper builds on classical distributionally robust optimization techniques to construct a comprehensive framework that can be used for solving inverse problems. Given an estimated distribution of inputs in $X$ and outputs in $Y$, an…

We consider robust variants of the standard optimal transport, named robust optimal transport, where marginal constraints are relaxed via Kullback-Leibler divergence. We show that Sinkhorn-based algorithms can approximate the optimal cost…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Khang Le , Huy Nguyen , Quang Nguyen , Tung Pham , Hung Bui , Nhat Ho

In this work, we provide robust bounds on the tail probabilities and the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions in the context of model misspecification. They are defined as the optimal value when computing the worst-case tail behavior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-14 Corina Birghila , Maximilian Aigner , Sebastian Engelke
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