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We propose a modification, based on the RESTART (repetitive simulation trials after reaching thresholds) and DPR (dynamics probability redistribution) rare event simulation algorithms, of the standard diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm.…

The objective of this paper is to investigate a new numerical method for the approximation of the self-diffusion matrix of a tagged particle process defined on a grid. While standard numerical methods make use of long-time averages of…

We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…

We introduce a nonparametric model for inferring time-evolving, unobserved probability distributions from discrete-time data consisting of unlabelled partitions. The latent process is a two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusion, and…

We investigate robust parameter estimation and testing procedure for multivariate diffusion processes observed at high frequency via the minimum density power divergence estimator (MDPDE). Within a general diffusion framework and under…

We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…

We consider the problem of inference for nonlinear, multivariate diffusion processes, satisfying It\^o stochastic differential equations (SDEs), using data at discrete times that may be incomplete and subject to measurement error. Our…

We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…

Discrete flow models offer a powerful framework for learning distributions over discrete state spaces and have demonstrated superior performance compared to the discrete diffusion models. However, their convergence properties and error…

Transition path theory (TPT) for diffusion processes is a framework for analysing the transitions of multiscale ergodic diffusion processes between disjoint metastable subsets of state space. Most methods for applying TPT involve the…

The predictive Bayesian view involves eliciting a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions in lieu of specifying a likelihood function and prior distribution. Recent methods have leveraged predictive distributions which are…

This paper presents an improved implicit sampling method for hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems. A widely used approach for sampling posterior distribution is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, the samples generated by…

Discrete diffusion models have recently emerged as a powerful class of generative models for chemistry and biology data. In these fields, the goal is to generate various samples with high rewards (e.g., drug-likeness in molecules), making…

Divide-and-conquer MCMC is a strategy for parallelising Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling by running independent samplers on disjoint subsets of a dataset and merging their output. An ongoing challenge in the literature is to efficiently…

We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…

In this paper,we consider a macro approximation of the flow of a risk reserve, The process is observed at discrete time points. Because we cannot directly observe each jump time and size then we will make use of a technique for identifying…

We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajec- tories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive…

The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior…

This paper concerns the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior sampling in Bayesian nonparametric mixture models with normalized random measure priors. Making use of some recent posterior characterizations for the class of…

We propose a new semiparametric approach for modelling nonlinear univariate diffusions, where the observed process is a nonparametric transformation of an underlying parametric diffusion (UPD). This modelling strategy yields a general class…