Related papers: Adaptive Confidence Intervals in Efron's Gaussian …
Test time adaptation (TTA) equips deep learning models to handle unseen test data that deviates from the training distribution, even when source data is inaccessible. While traditional TTA methods often rely on entropy as a confidence…
Multi-fidelity Gaussian process is a common approach to address the extensive computationally demanding algorithms such as optimization, calibration and uncertainty quantification. Adaptive sampling for multi-fidelity Gaussian process is a…
Probabilistic encoding introduces Gaussian noise into neural networks, enabling a smooth transition from deterministic to uncertain states and enhancing generalization ability. However, the randomness of Gaussian noise distorts point-based…
This paper aims first at a simultaneous axiomatic presentation of the proof of optimal convergence rates for adaptive finite element methods and second at some refinements of particular questions like the avoidance of (discrete) lower…
Given a mixture between two populations of coins, "positive" coins that each have -- unknown and potentially different -- bias $\geq\frac{1}{2}+\Delta$ and "negative" coins with bias $\leq\frac{1}{2}-\Delta$, we consider the task of…
Heavy-tailed errors impair the accuracy of the least squares estimate, which can be spoiled by a single grossly outlying observation. As argued in the seminal work of Peter Huber in 1973 [{\it Ann. Statist.} {\bf 1} (1973) 799--821], robust…
Sequential change-point detection when the distribution parameters are unknown is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. When the post-change parameters are unknown, we consider a set of detection procedures based on…
We consider the problem of Bayesian optimization of a one-dimensional Brownian motion in which the $T$ adaptively chosen observations are corrupted by Gaussian noise. We show that as the smallest possible expected cumulative regret and the…
In the analysis of survey data it is of interest to estimate and quantify uncertainty about means or totals for each of several non-overlapping subpopulations, or areas. When the sample size for a given area is small, standard confidence…
This paper investigates the adaptive identification and prediction problems for stochastic dynamical systems with saturated observations, which arise from various fields in engineering and social systems, but up to now still lack…
This paper presents a tractable algorithm for estimating an unknown Lipschitz function from noisy observations and establishes an upper bound on its convergence rate. The approach extends max-affine methods from convex shape-restricted…
Modern end-to-end automatic speech recognition (ASR) models like Whisper not only suffer from reduced recognition accuracy in noise, but also exhibit overconfidence - assigning high confidence to wrong predictions. We conduct a systematic…
We investigate the problem of covert quickest change detection in a Bayesian and infinite-horizon setting. A legitimate entity seeks to detect a change in the state of a discrete memoryless channel as quickly as possible by actively probing…
We study the problem of adaptive variable selection in a Gaussian white noise model of intensity $\varepsilon$ under certain sparsity and regularity conditions on an unknown regression function $f$. The $d$-variate regression function $f$…
Randomized controlled trials often suffer from interference, a violation of the Stable Unit Treatment Values Assumption (SUTVA) in which a unit's treatment assignment affects the outcomes of its neighbors. This interference causes bias in…
In this paper, we consider the problem of noiseless non-adaptive probabilistic group testing, in which the goal is high-probability recovery of the defective set. We show that in the case of $n$ items among which $k$ are defective, the…
We study a discrete-in-time data-assimilation algorithm based on nudging through a time-delayed feedback control in which the observational measurements have been contaminated by a Gaussian noise process. In the context of the…
We study the problem of robust linear regression with response variable corruptions. We consider the oblivious adversary model, where the adversary corrupts a fraction of the responses in complete ignorance of the data. We provide a nearly…
The main contribution of the paper is proving that the Fourier spot volatility estimator introduced in [Malliavin and Mancino, 2002] is consistent and asymptotically efficient if the price process is contaminated by microstructure noise.…
We consider the problem of optimizing an unknown (typically non-convex) function with a bounded norm in some Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), based on noisy bandit feedback. We consider a novel variant of this problem in which the…