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When robots share the same workspace with other intelligent agents (e.g., other robots or humans), they must be able to reason about the behaviors of their neighboring agents while accomplishing the designated tasks. In practice,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Junhong Xu , Durgakant Pushp , Kai Yin , Lantao Liu

Forecasting is a task that is difficult to evaluate: the ground truth can only be known in the future. Recent work showing LLM forecasters rapidly approaching human-level performance begs the question: how can we benchmark and evaluate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Daniel Paleka , Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir , Alejandro Alvarez , Vineeth Bhat , Adam Shen , Evan Wang , Florian Tramèr

Judgmental forecasting is the task of making predictions about future events based on human judgment. This task can be seen as a form of claim verification, where the claim corresponds to a future event and the task is to assess the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Deniz Gorur , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

Time-series forecasts play a critical role in business planning. However, forecasters typically optimize objectives that are agnostic to downstream business goals and thus can produce forecasts misaligned with business preferences. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-28 Helen Zhou , Sercan O. Arik , Jingtao Wang

As large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong reasoning abilities in structured tasks (e.g., coding and mathematics), we explore whether these abilities extend to strategic multi-agent environments. We investigate strategic…

General Economics · Economics 2025-10-23 Gavin Kader , Dongwoo Lee

Recent advances in multimodal agents have improved computer-use interaction and tool-usage, yet most existing systems remain reactive, optimizing actions in isolation without reasoning about future states or long-term goals. This limits…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Yongyuan Liang , Shijie Zhou , Yu Gu , Hao Tan , Gang Wu , Franck Dernoncourt , Jihyung Kil , Ryan A. Rossi , Ruiyi Zhang

Agents built on vision-language models increasingly face tasks that demand anticipating future states rather than relying on short-horizon reasoning. Generative world models offer a promising remedy: agents could use them as external…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Cheng Qian , Emre Can Acikgoz , Bingxuan Li , Xiusi Chen , Yuji Zhang , Bingxiang He , Qinyu Luo , Dilek Hakkani-Tür , Gokhan Tur , Yunzhu Li , Heng Ji

When inferring the goals that others are trying to achieve, people intuitively understand that others might make mistakes along the way. This is crucial for activities such as teaching, offering assistance, and deciding between blame or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-28 Arwa Alanqary , Gloria Z. Lin , Joie Le , Tan Zhi-Xuan , Vikash K. Mansinghka , Joshua B. Tenenbaum

This paper introduces lateral thinking to implement System-2 reasoning capabilities in AI systems, focusing on anticipatory and causal reasoning under uncertainty. We present a framework for systematic generation and modeling of lateral…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Stefan Dernbach , Alejandro Michel , Khushbu Agarwal , Christopher Brissette , Geetika Gupta , Sutanay Choudhury

Time series forecasting has traditionally been formulated as a model-centric, static, and single-pass prediction problem that maps historical observations to future values. While this paradigm has driven substantial progress, it proves…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Mingyue Cheng , Xiaoyu Tao , Qi Liu , Ze Guo , Enhong Chen

How should an agent decide when and how to plan? A dominant approach builds agents as reactive policies with adaptive computation (e.g., chain-of-thought), trained end-to-end expecting planning to emerge implicitly. Without control over the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Mingkai Deng , Jinyu Hou , Lara Sá Neves , Varad Pimpalkhute , Taylor W. Killian , Zhengzhong Liu , Eric P. Xing

Preserving multimodal signals across agent boundaries is necessary for accurate cross-modal reasoning, but it is not sufficient. We show that modality-native routing in Agent-to-Agent (A2A) networks improves task accuracy by 20 percentage…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Vasundra Srinivasan

AI agents are an exciting new research direction, and agent development is driven by benchmarks. Our analysis of current agent benchmarks and evaluation practices reveals several shortcomings that hinder their usefulness in real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Sayash Kapoor , Benedikt Stroebl , Zachary S. Siegel , Nitya Nadgir , Arvind Narayanan

Autonomous agents have recently achieved remarkable progress across diverse domains, yet most evaluations focus on short-horizon, fully observable tasks. In contrast, many critical real-world tasks, such as large-scale software development,…

We present a framework for evaluating and benchmarking logical reasoning agents when assessment itself must be reproducible, auditable, and robust to execution failures. Building on agentified assessment, we use an assessor agent to issue…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Zhiyu Ni , Yifeng Xiao , Zheng Liang

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly tasked with complex real-world analysis (e.g., in financial forecasting, scientific discovery), yet their reasoning suffers from stochastic instability and lacks a verifiable, compositional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Junyan Cheng , Kyle Richardson , Peter Chin

We initiate the study of deep learning for the automated design of two-sided matching mechanisms. What is of most interest is to use machine learning to understand the possibility of new tradeoffs between strategy-proofness and stability.…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Sai Srivatsa Ravindranath , Zhe Feng , Shira Li , Jonathan Ma , Scott D. Kominers , David C. Parkes

AI agents hold growing promise for accelerating scientific discovery; yet, a lack of frontier evaluations hinders adoption into real workflows. Expert-written benchmarks have proven effective at measuring AI reasoning, but most at this…

In many predictive decision-making scenarios, such as credit scoring and academic testing, a decision-maker must construct a model that accounts for agents' propensity to "game" the decision rule by changing their features so as to receive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 Yonadav Shavit , Benjamin Edelman , Brian Axelrod

When humans are subject to an algorithmic decision system, they can strategically adjust their behavior accordingly (``game'' the system). While a growing line of literature on strategic classification has used game-theoretic modeling to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Raman Ebrahimi , Kristen Vaccaro , Parinaz Naghizadeh