Related papers: Self-organized regime switching in null-recurrent …
A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…
The aim of this paper is to study the dynamical behavior of non-autonomous stochastic lattice systems with Markovian switching. We first show existence of an evolution system of measures of the stochastic system. We then study the pullback…
We present a model for the time evolution of network architectures based on dynamical systems. We show that the evolution of the existence of a connection in a network can be described as a stochastic non-markovian telegraphic signal…
In this paper we present some new limit theorems for power variation of $k$th order increments of stationary increments L\'evy driven moving averages. In the infill asymptotic setting, where the sampling frequency converges to zero while…
Majority-vote ensembles achieve variance reduction by averaging over diverse, approximately independent base learners. When training data exhibits Markov dependence, as in time-series forecasting, reinforcement learning (RL) replay buffers,…
We consider the behaviour of branching-selection particle systems in the large population limit. The dynamics of these systems is the combination of the following three components: (a) Motion: particles move on the real line according to a…
This article develops a moderate-deviation limit theory for autoregressive models with jointly persistent mean and volatility dynamics. The autoregressive coefficient is allowed to drift toward unity slower than the classical 1/n rate,…
We introduce a class of multi-scale systems with discrete time, motivated by the problem of inviscid limit in fluid dynamics in the presence of small-scale noise. These systems are infinite-dimensional and defined on a scale-invariant…
If the log likelihood is approximately quadratic with constant Hessian, then the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is approximately normally distributed. No other assumptions are required. We do not need independent and identically…
The law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) for the time-homogeneous Markov process with a unique invariant measure characterizes the almost sure maximum possible fluctuation of time averages around the ergodic limit. Whether a numerical…
We consider collections of $N$ chordal random curves obtained from a critical lattice model on a planar graph, in the limit when a fine-mesh graph approximates a simply-connected domain. We define and study candidates for such limits in…
We introduce the notion of a random relaxed asymptotic contraction in the setting of random normed modules. The contraction condition employs two quasi-metrics that are built directly from the random operator: a lower quasi-metric which…
We consider the problem of approximating optimal in the Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) sense nonlinear filters in a discrete time setting, exploiting properties of stochastically convergent state process approximations. More…
In the 1960s, Shiryaev developed a Bayesian theory of change-point detection in the i.i.d. case, which was generalized in the beginning of the 2000s by Tartakovsky and Veeravalli for general stochastic models assuming a certain stability of…
We consider a jump-type Cox--Ingersoll--Ross (CIR) process driven by a standard Wiener process and a subordinator, and we study asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for its growth rate. We distinguish three cases:…
This paper is devoted to the study of a stochastic process obtained by random switching between a finite collection of vector fields. Such processes have recently been the focus of much attention in the case where the switching times are…
Recent attention in quickest change detection in the multi-sensor setting has been on the case where the densities of the observations change at the same instant at all the sensors due to the disruption. In this work, a more general…
It is possible to represent each of a number of Markov chains as an evolving sequence of connected subsets of a directed acyclic graph that grow in the following way: initially, all vertices of the graph are unoccupied, particles are fed in…
We propose several statistics to test the Markov hypothesis for $\beta$-mixing stationary processes sampled at discrete time intervals. Our tests are based on the Chapman--Kolmogorov equation. We establish the asymptotic null distributions…
Testing for regime switching when the regime switching probabilities are specified either as constants (`mixture models') or are governed by a finite-state Markov chain (`Markov switching models') are long-standing problems that have also…