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Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions. Often, point…

Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally…

Accurate epidemic forecasting is critical for informing public health decisions and timely interventions. While Physics-Informed Neural Networks have shown promise in various scientific domains, their potential application to real-time…

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting,…

Influenza forecasting in the United States (US) is complex and challenging for reasons including substantial spatial and temporal variability, nested geographic scales of forecast interest, and heterogeneous surveillance participation. Here…

Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…

Global mobility flow data are at the heart of spatial epidemiological models used to predict infectious disease behavior but this wealth of data on human mobility has been largely neglected by reconstructions of pathogen evolutionary…

Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…

Timely and accurate forecasts of seasonal influenza would assist public health decision-makers in planning intervention strategies, efficiently allocating resources, and possibly saving lives. For these reasons, influenza forecasts are…

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…

The characteristics of influenza seasons varies substantially from year to year, posing challenges for public health preparation and response. Influenza forecasting is used to inform seasonal outbreak response, which can in turn potentially…

In this manuscript, we use meteorological information in Galicia (Spain) to propose a novel approach to predict the incidence of influenza. Our approach extends the GLS methods in the multivariate framework to functional regression models…

Graph-structured data and their related algorithms have attracted significant attention in many fields, such as influenza prediction in public health. However, the variable influenza seasonality, occasional pandemics, and domain knowledge…

Over the last ten years, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized an annual influenza forecasting challenge with the motivation that accurate probabilistic forecasts could improve situational awareness and yield…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important…

Obtaining accurate estimates of uncertainty in climate scenarios often requires generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate simulations, a computationally expensive and memory intensive process. To address this challenge, we train…

Diffusion probabilistic models learn to remove noise added during training, generating novel data (e.g., images) from Gaussian noise through sequential denoising. However, conditioning the generative process on corrupted or masked images is…

Spatiotemporal data analysis is pivotal across various domains, such as transportation, meteorology, and healthcare. The data collected in real-world scenarios are often incomplete due to device malfunctions and network errors.…

Infectious diseases pose significant human and economic burdens. Accurately forecasting disease incidence can enable public health agencies to respond effectively to existing or emerging diseases. Despite progress in the field, developing…