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Related papers: Prior-Agnostic Robust Forecast Aggregation

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We study policy evaluation of offline contextual bandits subject to unobserved confounders. Sensitivity analysis methods are commonly used to estimate the policy value under the worst-case confounding over a given uncertainty set. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Kei Ishikawa , Niao He , Takafumi Kanamori

Performative prediction is a recently proposed framework where predictions guide decision-making and hence influence future data distributions. Such performative phenomena are ubiquitous in various areas, such as transportation, finance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-25 Wenjing Yan , Xuanyu Cao

Stochastic and adversarial data are two widely studied settings in online learning. But many optimization tasks are neither i.i.d. nor fully adversarial, which makes it of fundamental interest to get a better theoretical understanding of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-03 Sarah Sachs , Hedi Hadiji , Tim van Erven , Cristobal Guzman

We consider adaptive control of the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR), where an unknown linear system is controlled subject to quadratic costs. Leveraging recent developments in the estimation of linear systems and in robust controller…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-25 Sarah Dean , Horia Mania , Nikolai Matni , Benjamin Recht , Stephen Tu

We propose a new formulation of robust regression by integrating all realizations of the uncertainty set and taking an averaged approach to obtain the optimal solution for the ordinary least squares regression problem. We show that this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Dimitris Bertsimas , Yu Ma

We study online adversarial regression with convex losses against a rich class of continuous yet highly irregular prediction rules, modeled by Besov spaces $B\_{pq}^s$ with general parameters $1 \leq p,q \leq \infty$ and smoothness $s >…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Paul Liautaud , Pierre Gaillard , Olivier Wintenberger

We address the problem of aggregating an ensemble of predictors with known loss bounds in a semi-supervised binary classification setting, to minimize prediction loss incurred on the unlabeled data. We find the minimax optimal predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-08 Akshay Balsubramani , Yoav Freund

Many prediction domains, such as ad placement, recommendation, trajectory prediction, and document summarization, require predicting a set or list of options. Such lists are often evaluated using submodular reward functions that measure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-05-14 Stephane Ross , Jiaji Zhou , Yisong Yue , Debadeepta Dey , J. Andrew Bagnell

Agnostic online learning is classically solved via a reduction to the realizable setting, utilizing Littlestone's Standard Optimal Algorithm (SOA) as a base learner. However, the SOA is computationally intractable to execute even for a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Idan Attias , Steve Hanneke , Arvind Ramaswami

This study considers online learning with general directed feedback graphs. For this problem, we present best-of-both-worlds algorithms that achieve nearly tight regret bounds for adversarial environments as well as poly-logarithmic regret…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-29 Shinji Ito , Taira Tsuchiya , Junya Honda

In decision-making under uncertainty, several criteria have been studied to aggregate the performance of a solution over multiple possible scenarios. This paper introduces a novel variant of ordered weighted averaging (OWA) for optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-30 Werner Baak , Marc Goerigk , Adam Kasperski , Paweł Zieliński

A robust estimator for a wide family of mixtures of linear regression is presented. Robustness is based on the joint adoption of the Cluster Weighted Model and of an estimator based on trimming and restrictions. The selected model provides…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-05 L. A. Garcia-Escudero , A. Gordaliza , F. Greselin , S. Ingrassia , A. Mayo-Iscar

The theory of reinforcement learning has focused on two fundamental problems: achieving low regret, and identifying $\epsilon$-optimal policies. While a simple reduction allows one to apply a low-regret algorithm to obtain an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Andrew Wagenmaker , Max Simchowitz , Kevin Jamieson

The standard theory of optimal stopping is based on the idealised assumption that the underlying process is essentially known. In this paper, we drop this restriction and study data-driven optimal stopping for a general diffusion process,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-12 Sören Christensen , Niklas Dexheimer , Claudia Strauch

We propose a simple model selection approach for algorithms in stochastic bandit and reinforcement learning problems. As opposed to prior work that (implicitly) assumes knowledge of the optimal regret, we only require that each base…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-25 Aldo Pacchiano , Christoph Dann , Claudio Gentile , Peter Bartlett

In high-stakes applications, predictive models must not only produce accurate predictions but also quantify and communicate their uncertainty. Reject-option prediction addresses this by allowing the model to abstain when prediction…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Vojtech Franc , Jakub Paplham

In this correspondence, we introduce a minimax regret criteria to the least squares problems with bounded data uncertainties and solve it using semi-definite programming. We investigate a robust minimax least squares approach that minimizes…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-03-20 Nargiz Kalantarova , Mehmet A. Donmez , Suleyman S. Kozat

This paper proposes corrected forecast combinations when the original combined forecast errors are serially dependent. Motivated by the classic Bates and Granger (1969) example, we show that combined forecast errors can be strongly…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-16 Chu-An Liu , Andrey L. Vasnev

In this paper, we introduce a new learning strategy based on a seminal idea of Mojirsheibani (1999, 2000, 2002a, 2002b), who proposed a smart method for combining several classifiers, relying on a consensus notion. In many aggregation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Aurélie Fischer , Mathilde Mougeot

This paper investigates the robustness of causal bandits (CBs) in the face of temporal model fluctuations. This setting deviates from the existing literature's widely-adopted assumption of constant causal models. The focus is on causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-14 Zirui Yan , Arpan Mukherjee , Burak Varıcı , Ali Tajer