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This paper addresses the prediction stability, prediction accuracy and control capability of the current probabilistic model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) built on neural networks. A novel approach dropout-based probabilistic…

Predictions from machine learning algorithms can vary across random seeds, inducing instability in downstream debiased machine learning estimators. We formalize random seed stability via a concentration condition and prove that subbagging…

Stochastic policies (also known as relaxed controls) are widely used in continuous-time reinforcement learning algorithms. However, executing a stochastic policy and evaluating its performance in a continuous-time environment remain open…

Computer system simulation studies routinely rely on executing a limited number of short application regions, since full end-to-end simulation is prohibitively time-consuming. To preserve representativeness, existing methods employ either…

Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…

Principal component regression (PCR) is a simple, but powerful and ubiquitously utilized method. Its effectiveness is well established when the covariates exhibit low-rank structure. However, its ability to handle settings with noisy,…

Deep metric learning aims to construct an embedding space where samples of the same class are close to each other, while samples of different classes are far away from each other. Most existing deep metric learning methods attempt to…

There has been an intense development on the estimation of a sparse regression coefficient vector in statistics, machine learning and related fields. In this paper, we focus on the Bayesian approach to this problem, where sparsity is…

We investigate the existence and severity of local modes in posterior distributions from Bayesian analyses. These are known to occur in posterior tails resulting from heavy-tailed error models such as those used in robust regression. To…

Metric learning is central to retrieval, yet its effects on embedding geometry and optimization dynamics are not well understood. We introduce a diagnostic framework, VARIANCE (intra-/inter-class variance) and GREEDINESS (active ratio and…

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…

Optimizing static risk-averse objectives in Markov decision processes is difficult because they do not admit standard dynamic programming equations common in Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms. Dynamic programming decompositions that…

This paper addresses the problem of learning a sparse structure Bayesian network from high-dimensional discrete data. Compared to continuous Bayesian networks, learning a discrete Bayesian network is a challenging problem due to the large…

In classical statistics, the bias-variance trade-off describes how varying a model's complexity (e.g., number of fit parameters) affects its ability to make accurate predictions. According to this trade-off, optimal performance is achieved…

The effectiveness of active learning largely depends on the sampling efficiency of the acquisition function. Expected Loss Reduction (ELR) focuses on a Bayesian estimate of the reduction in classification error, and more general costs fit…

We propose simultaneous mean-variance regression for the linear estimation and approximation of conditional mean functions. In the presence of heteroskedasticity of unknown form, our method accounts for varying dispersion in the regression…

With the rise of neural models across the field of information retrieval, numerous publications have incrementally pushed the envelope of performance for a multitude of IR tasks. However, these networks often sample data in random order,…

RNA interference (RNAi) is an endogenous cellular process in which small double-stranded RNAs lead to the destruction of mRNAs with complementary nucleoside sequence. With the production of RNAi libraries, large-scale RNAi screening in…

Deep neural networks can achieve remarkable generalization performances while interpolating the training data perfectly. Rather than the U-curve emblematic of the bias-variance trade-off, their test error often follows a "double descent" -…

We incorporate heteroskedasticity into Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) by modeling the log of the error variance parameter as a linear function of prespecified covariates. Under this scheme, the Gibbs sampling procedure for the…