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Classical models for multivariate or spatial extremes are mainly based upon the asymptotically justified max-stable or generalized Pareto processes. These models are suitable when asymptotic dependence is present, i.e., the joint tail…

We introduce a statistical model for operational losses based on heavy-tailed distributions and bipartite graphs, which captures the event type and business line structure of operational risk data. The model explicitly takes into account…

Gini-type correlation coefficients have become increasingly important in a variety of research areas, including economics, insurance and finance, where modelling with heavy-tailed distributions is of pivotal importance. In such situations,…

Motivated by the prominence of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a measure for tail risk in settings affected by uncertainty, we develop a new formula for approximating CVaR based optimization objectives and their gradients from limited…

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail…

Explaining empirically observed wealth and income distributions, featuring power-law tails alongside gamma or log-normal bulk shapes, challenges models that focus on either pairwise competition or individual investment mechanisms. This…

We propose a transformation capable of altering the tail properties of a distribution, motivated by extreme value theory, which can be used as a layer in a normalizing flow to approximate multivariate heavy tailed distributions. We apply…

We propose a new measure related with tail dependence in terms of correlation: quantile correlation coefficient of random variables X, Y. The quantile correlation is defined by the geometric mean of two quantile regression slopes of X on Y…

Gaussian copulas are widely used in the industry to correlate two random variables when there is no prior knowledge about the co-dependence between them. The perturbed Gaussian copula approach allows introducing the skew information of both…

We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…

We consider an investor, whose portfolio consists of a single risky asset and a risk free asset, who wants to maximize his expected utility of the portfolio subject to the Value at Risk assuming a heavy tail distribution of the stock prices…

Normalizing flows, a popular class of deep generative models, often fail to represent extreme phenomena observed in real-world processes. In particular, existing normalizing flow architectures struggle to model multivariate extremes,…

Understanding the dependence relationship of credit spreads of corporate bonds is important for risk management. Vine copula models with tail dependence are used to analyze a credit spread dataset of Chinese corporate bonds, understand the…

We propose a parsimonious quantile regression framework to learn the dynamic tail behaviors of financial asset returns. Our model captures well both the time-varying characteristic and the asymmetrical heavy-tail property of financial time…

The risk of a credit portfolio depends crucially on correlations between the probability of default (PD) in different economic sectors. Often, PD correlations have to be estimated from relatively short time series of default rates, and the…

As the increasing application of AI in finance, this paper will leverage AI algorithms to examine tail risk and develop a model to alter tail risk to promote the stability of US financial markets, and enhance the resilience of the US…

This paper introduces a new extension of the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model aimed at improving tail risk forecasting across assets. The proposed component-based model, CAViaR with Spillover Effects (CAViaR-SE),…

Classical information-theoretic generalization bounds typically control the generalization gap through KL-based mutual information and therefore rely on boundedness or sub-Gaussian tails via the moment generating function (MGF). In many…

Causal questions are omnipresent in many scientific problems. While much progress has been made in the analysis of causal relationships between random variables, these methods are not well suited if the causal mechanisms only manifest…

Meta learning is a promising paradigm in the era of large models and task distributional robustness has become an indispensable consideration in real-world scenarios. Recent advances have examined the effectiveness of tail task risk…