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The effective sample size (ESS) is widely used in sample-based simulation methods for assessing the quality of a Monte Carlo approximation of a given distribution and of related integrals. In this paper, we revisit the approximation of the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-04-14 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , Christian P. Robert

Importance sampling (IS) is an efficient stand-in for model refitting in performing (LOO) cross-validation (CV) on a Bayesian model. IS inverts the Bayesian update for a single observation by reweighting posterior samples. The so-called…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Joshua C Chang , Xiangting Li , Tianyi Su , Shixin Xu , Hao-Ren Yao , Julia Porcino , Carson Chow

We approach the problem of combining top-ranking association statistics or P-value from a new perspective which leads to a remarkably simple and powerful method. Statistical methods, such as the Rank Truncated Product (RTP), have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-12 Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya , Fengjiao Hu , Dmitri V. Zaykin

Digital constellations formed by hexagonal or other non-square two-dimensional lattices are often used in advanced digital communication systems. The integrals required to evaluate the symbol error rate (SER) of these constellations in the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-02-20 Víctor Elvira , Ignacio Santamaría

The Effective Sample Size (ESS) is an important measure of efficiency of Monte Carlo methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Importance Sampling (IS) techniques. In the IS context, an approximation $\widehat{ESS}$ of the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-27 L. Martino , V. Elvira , F. Louzada

Importance Sampling (IS) is a method for approximating expectations under a target distribution using independent samples from a proposal distribution and the associated importance weights. In many applications, the target distribution is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-14 Gabriel Cardoso , Sergey Samsonov , Achille Thin , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

Estimation of the allele frequency at genetic markers is a key ingredient in biological and biomedical research, such as studies of human genetic variation or of the genetic etiology of heritable traits. As genetic data becomes increasingly…

Applications · Statistics 2007-12-18 Marc Coram , Hua Tang

Sequential importance sampling algorithms have been defined to estimate likelihoods in models of ancestral population processes. However, these algorithms are based on features of the models with constant population size, and become…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Coralie Merle , Raphaël Leblois , François Rousset , Pierre Pudlo

Importance sampling (IS) represents a fundamental technique for a large surge of off-policy reinforcement learning approaches. Policy gradient (PG) methods, in particular, significantly benefit from IS, enabling the effective reuse of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Matteo Papini , Giorgio Manganini , Alberto Maria Metelli , Marcello Restelli

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Julien Demange-Chryst , François Bachoc , Jérôme Morio

Given a sequence of observations from a discrete-time, finite-state hidden Markov model, we would like to estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic. The bootstrap method is employed to approximate the confidence regions of a…

Computation · Statistics 2009-09-29 Cheng-Der Fuh , Inchi Hu

Learning Ising or Potts models from data has become an important topic in statistical physics and computational biology, with applications to predictions of structural contacts in proteins and other areas of biological data analysis. The…

Biological Physics · Physics 2018-09-19 Chen-Yi Gao , Hai-Jun Zhou , Erik Aurell

Estimating the effective sample size (ESS) of a prior distribution is an age-old yet pivotal challenge, with great implications for clinical trials and various biomedical applications. Although numerous endeavors have been dedicated to this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Han Wang , Yan Dora Zhang , Guosheng Yin

We present a subset selection algorithm designed to work with arbitrary model families in a practical batch setting. In such a setting, an algorithm can sample examples one at a time but, in order to limit overhead costs, is only able to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Gui Citovsky , Giulia DeSalvo , Sanjiv Kumar , Srikumar Ramalingam , Afshin Rostamizadeh , Yunjuan Wang

In this paper, we develop a novel procedure for low-rank tensor regression, namely \emph{\underline{I}mportance \underline{S}ketching \underline{L}ow-rank \underline{E}stimation for \underline{T}ensors} (ISLET). The central idea behind…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-11 Anru Zhang , Yuetian Luo , Garvesh Raskutti , Ming Yuan

In this paper, we propose an efficient importance sampling algorithm for rare event simulation under copula models. In the algorithm, the derived optimal probability measure is based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-07 Siang Cheng , Cheng-Der Fuh , Tianxiao Pang

In observational studies, the assumption of sufficient overlap (positivity) is fundamental for the identification and estimation of causal effects. Failing to account for this assumption yields inaccurate and potentially infeasible…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-07 Jaehyuk Jang , Suehyun Kim , Kwonsang Lee

Stochastic sampling algorithms, while an attractive alternative to exact algorithms in very large Bayesian network models, have been observed to perform poorly in evidential reasoning with extremely unlikely evidence. To address this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-06-02 J. Cheng , M. J. Druzdzel

This paper proposes a new importance sampling (IS) that is tailored to quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) integration over $\mathbb{R}^s$. IS introduces a multiplicative adjustment to the integrand by compensating the sampling from the proposal…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-09-19 Zexin Pan , Du Ouyang , Zhijian He