Related papers: Sharp bounds for products of dependent random vari…
In this paper, we compute the tightest possible bounds on the probability that the optimal value of a combinatorial optimization problem in maximization form with a random objective exceeds a given number, assuming only knowledge of the…
Worst-case bounds on the expected shortfall risk given only limited information on the distribution of the random variables has been studied extensively in the literature. In this paper, we develop a new worst-case bound on the expected…
This paper considers the difference of stop-loss payoffs where the underlying is a difference of two random variables. The goal is to study whether the comonotonic and countermonotonic modifications of those two random variables can be used…
We derive sharp upper and lower bounds for the pointwise concentration function of the maximum statistic of $d$ identically distributed real-valued random variables. Our first main result places no restrictions either on the common marginal…
A {\em maximal inequality} seeks to estimate $\mathbb{E}\max_i X_i$ in terms of properties of the $X_i$. When the latter are independent, the union bound (in its various guises) can yield tight upper bounds. If, however, the $X_i$ are…
We present a universal concentration bound for sums of random variables under arbitrary dependence, and we prove that it is asymptotically optimal for broad families of marginals admitting a uniform integrable tail-quantile envelope. The…
We introduce the concept of an extremely negatively dependent (END) sequence of random variables with a given common marginal distribution. The END structure, as a new benchmark for negative dependence, is comparable to comonotonicity and…
The study of multivariate extremes is dominated by multivariate regular variation, although it is well known that this approach does not provide adequate distinction between random vectors whose components are not always simultaneously…
Bounding causal effects analytically, rather than numerically, is appealing for its interpretability and conceptual clarity. Existing sharp methods rely on optimization-based approaches such as the Balke-Pearl framework, whose computational…
Maximal inequalities refer to bounds on expected values of the supremum of averages of random variables over a collection. They play a crucial role in the study of non-parametric and high-dimensional estimators, and especially in the study…
Under the assumption that the distribution of a nonnegative random variable $X$ admits a bounded coupling with its size biased version, we prove simple and strong concentration bounds. In particular the upper tail probability is shown to…
It is well known that a random vector with given marginal distributions is comonotonic if and only if it has the largest sum with respect to the convex order [ Kaas, Dhaene, Vyncke, Goovaerts, Denuit (2002), A simple geometric proof that…
We introduce a constrained optimal transport problem where origins $x$ can only be transported to destinations $y\geq x$. Our statistical motivation is to describe the sharp upper bound for the variance of the treatment effect $Y-X$ given…
This paper considers a variation of the full-information secretary problem where the random variables to be observed are independent but not necessary identically distributed. The main result is a sharp lower bound for the optimal win…
We study the spherical cap packing problem with a probabilistic approach. Such probabilistic considerations result in an asymptotic sharp universal uniform bound on the maximal inner product between any set of unit vectors and a…
Consider the problem of drawing random variates $(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ from a distribution where the marginal of each $X_i$ is specified, as well as the correlation between every pair $X_i$ and $X_j$. For given marginals, the…
We propose a new method for estimating the extreme quantiles for a function of several dependent random variables. In contrast to the conventional approach based on extreme value theory, we do not impose the condition that the tail of the…
Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not only arise…
We re-examine a lower-tail upper bound for the random variable $$X=\prod_{i=1}^{\infty}\min\left\{\sum_{k=1}^iE_k,1\right\},$$ where $E_1,E_2,\ldots\stackrel{iid}\sim\text{Exp}(1)$. This bound has found use in root-finding and seed-finding…
We investigate the supports of extremal martingale measures with pre-specified marginals in a two-period setting. First, we establish in full generality the equivalence between the extremality of a given measure $Q$ and the denseness in…