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Marginal structural models were introduced in order to provide estimates of causal effects from interventions based on observational studies in epidemiological research. The key point is that this can be understood in terms of Girsanov's…

The objective of this paper is to study the filtering problem for a system of partially observable processes $(X, Y)$, where $X$ is a non-Markovian pure-jump process representing the signal and $Y$ is a general jump-diffusion which provides…

We propose a simple model for sample space reducing (SSR) stochastic process, where the dynamical variable denoting the size of the state space is continuous. In general, one can view the model as a multiplicative stochastic process, with a…

Inspired by a duration-dependent life insurance model, we consider continuous-time semi-Markov jump processes, initially assumed to have a finite state-space. We develop approximations using jump processes that are time-homogeneous Markov,…

* ACTIVATED RANDOM WALK MODEL * This is a conservative particle system on the lattice, with a Markovian continuous-time evolution. Active particles perform random walks without interaction, and they may as well change their state to…

In this article, we prove that a small random perturbation of dynamical system with multiple stable equilibria converges to a Markov chain whose states are neighborhoods of the deepest stable equilibria, under a suitable time-rescaling,…

Dirichlet processes and their extensions have reached a great popularity in Bayesian nonparametric statistics. They have also been introduced for spatial and spatio-temporal data, as a tool to analyze and predict surfaces. A popular…

In stochastic resonance, a periodically forced Brownian particle in a double-well potential jumps between minima at rare increments, the prediction of which poses a major theoretical challenge. Here, we use a path-integral method to find a…

We compare two approaches to the predictive modeling of dynamical systems from partial observations at discrete times. The first is continuous in time, where one uses data to infer a model in the form of stochastic differential equations,…

This paper investigates the position (state) distribution of the single step binomial (multi-nomial) process on a discrete state / time grid under the assumption that the velocity process rather than the state process is Markovian. In this…

Complex systems may often be characterized by their hierarchical dynamics. In this paper do we present a method and an operational algorithm that automatically infer this property in a broad range of systems; discrete stochastic processes.…

Hidden Markov jump processes are an attractive approach for modeling clinical disease progression data because they are explainable and capable of handling both irregularly sampled and noisy data. Most applications in this context consider…

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become standard tools in statistics to sample from complex probability measures. Many available techniques rely on discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernels build up over the…

In this paper, we study a class of multi-dimensional reflected backward stochastic differential equations when the noise is driven by a Brownian motion and an independent Poisson point process, and when the solution is forced to stay in a…

We present a tractable non-independent increment process which provides a high modeling flexibility. The process lies on an extension of the so-called Harris chains to continuous time being stationary and Feller. We exhibit constructions,…

In this work, we generalize the concept of bisimulation metric in order to metrize the behaviour of continuous-time processes. Similarly to what is done for discrete-time systems, we follow two approaches and show that they coincide: as a…

The objective of this work is to study continuous-time Markov decision processes on a general Borel state space with both impulsive and continuous controls for the infinite-time horizon discounted cost. The continuous-time controlled…

We consider a multidimensional time-homogeneous dynamical system and add a randomly perturbed time-dependent deterministic signal to some of its components, giving rise to a high-dimensional system of stochastic differential equations,…

We propose a novel sparse spatiotemporal dynamic generalized linear model for efficient inference and prediction of bicycle count data. Assuming Poisson distributed counts with spacetime-varying rates, we model the log-rate using…

The aim of this paper is to examine the time scaling of the semivariance when returns are modeled by various types of jump-diffusion processes, including stochastic volatility models with jumps in returns and in volatility. In particular,…