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Predicting extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging due to a limited understanding of their statistical properties. This study numerically and theoretically investigates the statistical properties of infinite-modal maps…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-07 Masaki Nakagawa

Data science, and machine learning in particular, is rapidly transforming the scientific and industrial landscapes. The aerospace industry is poised to capitalize on big data and machine learning, which excels at solving the types of…

Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-18 Adam Rupe , Karthik Kashinath , Nalini Kumar , Victor Lee , Prabhat , James P. Crutchfield

The study of geometric extremes, where extremal dependence properties are inferred from the deterministic limiting shapes of scaled sample clouds, provides an exciting approach to modelling the extremes of multivariate data. These shapes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-16 Callum J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , Reetam Majumder , Jordan Richards

We present a machine learning (ML)-assisted framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale modeling, for (a) detecting tipping points in the emergent behavior of complex systems, and…

In multivariate or spatial extremes, inference for max-stable processes observed at a large collection of locations is among the most challenging problems in computational statistics, and current approaches typically rely on less expensive…

Computation · Statistics 2015-08-20 Stefano Castruccio , Raphaël Huser , Marc Genton

Building an accurate surrogate model for the spatio-temporal outputs of a computer simulation is a challenging task. A simple approach to improve the accuracy of the surrogate is to cluster the outputs based on similarity and build a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Chandrika Kamath , Juliette S. Franzman

This paper deals with the problem of adaptive output regulation for multivariable nonlinear systems by presenting a learning-based adaptive internal model-based design strategy. The approach builds on the recently proposed adaptive internal…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-31 Lorenzo Gentilini , Michelangelo Bin , Lorenzo Marconi

Max-stable processes play an important role as models for spatial extreme events. Their complex structure as the pointwise maximum over an infinite number of random functions makes simulation highly nontrivial. Algorithms based on finite…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-16 Clément Dombry , Sebastian Engelke , Marco Oesting

Atmospheric Extreme Events (EEs) cause severe damages to human societies and ecosystems. The frequency and intensity of EEs and other associated events are increasing in the current climate change and global warming risk. The accurate…

Modelling the extremal dependence structure of spatial data is considerably easier if that structure is stationary. However, for data observed over large or complicated domains, non-stationarity will often prevail. Current methods for…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-04 Jordan Richards , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

We scrutinize the use of machine learning, based on reservoir computing, to build data-driven effective models of multiscale chaotic systems. We show that, for a wide scale separation, machine learning generates effective models akin to…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2020-11-11 Francesco Borra , Angelo Vulpiani , Massimo Cencini

Risk assessment of hurricane-driven storm surge relies on deterministic computer models that produce outputs over a large spatial domain. The surge models can often be run at a range of fidelity levels, with greater precision yielding more…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Cyrus S. McCrimmon , Pulong Ma

Understanding extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical for the design of offshore and coastal facilities. The joint effect of various ocean variables on extreme responses of offshore…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-07 Kevin Ewans , Philip Jonathan

We propose and show the efficacy of a new method to address generic inverse problems. Inverse modeling is the task whereby one seeks to determine the control parameters of a natural system that produce a given set of observed measurements.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-15 Gregory P. Spell , Simiao Ren , Leslie M. Collins , Jordan M. Malof

We develop multiple Deep Learning (DL) models that advance the state-of-the-art predictions of the global auroral particle precipitation. We use observations from low Earth orbiting spacecraft of the electron energy flux to develop a model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-01 Jack Ziegler , Ryan M. Mcgranaghan

Model-based engineering promises to boost productivity and quality of complex systems development. In the context of safety-critical systems, a traditionally highly regulated and conservative domain, the use of models gained importance in…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Marc Zeller , Daniel Ratiu , Kai Hoefig

Leveraging the recently emerging geometric approach to multivariate extremes and the flexibility of normalising flows on the hypersphere, we propose a principled deep-learning-based methodology that enables accurate joint tail extrapolation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-07 Lambert De Monte , Raphaël Huser , Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jordan Richards

Constraining planet formation models based on the observed exoplanet population requires generating large samples of synthetic planetary systems, which can be computationally prohibitive. A significant bottleneck is simulating the giant…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-09-27 Caleb Lammers , Miles Cranmer , Sam Hadden , Shirley Ho , Norman Murray , Daniel Tamayo

Model-based Reinforcement Learning and Control have demonstrated great potential in various sequential decision making problem domains, including in robotics settings. However, real-world robotics systems often present challenges that limit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Achkan Salehi , Steffen Rühl , Stephane Doncieux