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Related papers: The Sample Complexity of Multicalibration

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Given an implicit $n\times n$ matrix $A$ with oracle access $x^TA x$ for any $x\in \mathbb{R}^n$, we study the query complexity of randomized algorithms for estimating the trace of the matrix. This problem has many applications in quantum…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2014-05-29 Karl Wimmer , Yi Wu , Peng Zhang

Recent work in imitation learning has shown that having an expert controller that is both suitably smooth and stable enables stronger guarantees on the performance of the learned controller. However, constructing such smoothed expert…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-02 Daniel Pfrommer , Swati Padmanabhan , Kwangjun Ahn , Jack Umenberger , Tobia Marcucci , Zakaria Mhammedi , Ali Jadbabaie

The task of estimating a matrix given a sample of observed entries is known as the \emph{matrix completion problem}. Most works on matrix completion have focused on recovering an unknown real-valued low-rank matrix from a random sample of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-08-27 Olga Klopp , Jean Lafond , Eric Moulines , Joseph Salmon

Accurate probabilistic predictions can be characterized by two properties -- calibration and sharpness. However, standard maximum likelihood training yields models that are poorly calibrated and thus inaccurate -- a 90% confidence interval…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Shachi Deshpande

Model multiplicity refers to the existence of multiple machine learning models that describe the data equally well but may produce different predictions on individual samples. In medicine, these models can admit conflicting predictions for…

We study infinite-horizon Discounted Markov Decision Processes (DMDPs) under a generative model. Motivated by the Algorithm with Advice framework Mitzenmacher and Vassilvitskii 2022, we propose a novel framework to investigate how a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-24 Lixing Lyu , Jiashuo Jiang , Wang Chi Cheung

Correlation Clustering (CC) is a fundamental unsupervised learning primitive whose strongest LP-based approximation guarantees require $\Theta(n^3)$ triangle inequality constraints and are prohibitive at scale. We initiate the study of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Ibne Farabi Shihab , Sanjeda Akter , Anuj Sharma

Deep neural networks often produce miscalibrated probability estimates, leading to overconfident predictions. A common approach for calibration is fitting a post-hoc calibration map on unseen validation data that transforms predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Yunrui Zhang , Gustavo Batista , Salil S. Kanhere

Modern challenges of robustness, fairness, and decision-making in machine learning have led to the formulation of multi-distribution learning (MDL) frameworks in which a predictor is optimized across multiple distributions. We study the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Rajeev Verma , Volker Fischer , Eric Nalisnick

Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-19 Matthew D. Cocci , Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

We prove the tightest-known upper bounds on the sample complexity of multi-group learning. Our algorithm extends the one-inclusion graph prediction strategy using a generalization of bipartite $b$-matching. In the group-realizable setting,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Noah Bergam , Samuel Deng , Daniel Hsu

Reliable confidence estimation for the predictions is important in many safety-critical applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions. Recently, many calibration methods have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Fei Zhu , Zhen Cheng , Xu-Yao Zhang , Cheng-Lin Liu

We propose the Variation Calibration Error (VCE) metric for assessing the calibration of machine learning classifiers. The metric can be viewed as an extension of the well-known Expected Calibration Error (ECE) which assesses the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Andrew Thompson , Vivek Desai

We study the problem of PAC learning $\gamma$-margin halfspaces in the presence of Massart noise. Without computational considerations, the sample complexity of this learning problem is known to be $\widetilde{\Theta}(1/(\gamma^2…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-17 Ilias Diakonikolas , Nikos Zarifis

This paper investigates the robust optimal control of sampled-data stochastic systems with multiplicative noise and distributional ambiguity. We consider a class of discrete-time optimal control problems where the controller \emph{jointly}…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-05 Chung-Han Hsieh

While significant progress has been made in specifying neural networks capable of representing uncertainty, deep networks still often suffer from overconfidence and misaligned predictive distributions. Existing approaches for measuring this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Spencer Young , Riley Sinema , Cole Edgren , Andrew Hall , Nathan Dong , Porter Jenkins

Multi-distribution learning (MDL), which seeks to learn a shared model that minimizes the worst-case risk across $k$ distinct data distributions, has emerged as a unified framework in response to the evolving demand for robustness,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Zihan Zhang , Wenhao Zhan , Yuxin Chen , Simon S. Du , Jason D. Lee

Several recent works have proposed instance-dependent upper bounds on the number of episodes needed to identify, with probability $1-\delta$, an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy in finite-horizon tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). These…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-13 Aymen Al-Marjani , Andrea Tirinzoni , Emilie Kaufmann

Calibration measures quantify how much a forecaster's predictions violates calibration, which requires that forecasts are unbiased conditioning on the forecasted probabilities. Two important desiderata for a calibration measure are its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Mingda Qiao , Eric Zhao

We study the tradeoff between sample complexity and round complexity in on-demand sampling, where the learning algorithm adaptively samples from $k$ distributions over a limited number of rounds. In the realizable setting of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Nika Haghtalab , Omar Montasser , Mingda Qiao