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Data collection is a critical step in statistical inference and data science, and the goal of statistical experimental design (ED) is to find the data collection setup that can provide most information for the inference. In this work we…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-01 Ziqiao Ao , Jinglai Li

Information bottleneck (IB) is a paradigm to extract information in one target random variable from another relevant random variable, which has aroused great interest due to its potential to explain deep neural networks in terms of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-08-23 Lingyi Chen , Shitong Wu , Wenhao Ye , Huihui Wu , Hao Wu , Wenyi Zhang , Bo Bai , Yining Sun

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a principled framework for optimizing expensive black-box functions, with Expected Improvement (EI) among its most widely used acquisition functions. Despite its empirical success, EI is agnostic to first-order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Joshua Hang Sai Ip , Georgios Makrygiorgos , Ali Mesbah

Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-15 Alice Cicirello , Filippo Giunta

This study addresses the challenge of fleet design optimization in the context of heterogeneous multi-robot fleets, aiming to obtain feasible designs that balance performance and costs. In the domain of autonomous multi-robot exploration,…

Microplastics contamination is one of the most rapidly growing research topics. However, monitoring microplastics contamination in the environment presents both logistical and statistical challenges, particularly when constrained resources…

Hierarchical Bayesian models are increasingly used in large, inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems by modeling parameters as draws from a hyperparameter-governed distribution. However, theoretical guarantees for these estimates as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-23 Yi Yu , Yubo Hou , Yinchong Wang , Nan Zhang , Jianfeng Feng , Wenlian Lu

The goal of survey design is often to minimize the errors associated with inference: the total of bias and variance. Random surveys are common because they allow the use of theoretically unbiased estimators. In practice however, such…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 Connie Okasaki , Sándor F. Tóth , Andrew M. Berdahl

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) aim to enhance interpretability by structuring predictions around human-understandable concepts. However, unintended information leakage, where predictive signals bypass the concept bottleneck, compromises…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Mikael Makonnen , Moritz Vandenhirtz , Sonia Laguna , Julia E Vogt

Optimal experimental design (OED) aims to choose the observations in an experiment to be as informative as possible, according to certain statistical criteria. In the linear case (when the observations depend linearly on the unknown…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Ruhui Jin , Martin Guerra , Qin Li , Stephen Wright

An optimal experimental set-up maximizes the value of data for statistical inferences and predictions. The efficiency of strategies for finding optimal experimental set-ups is particularly important for experiments that are time-consuming…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Joakim Beck , Ben Mansour Dia , Luis F. R. Espath , Raul Tempone

Discovering novel materials with desired properties is essential for driving innovation. Industry 4.0 and smart manufacturing have promised transformative advances in this area through real-time data integration and automated production…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Avijit Saha Asru , Hamed Khosravi , Imtiaz Ahmed , Abdullahil Azeem

Weather forecasting is fundamentally challenged by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, necessitating probabilistic approaches to quantify uncertainty. While traditional ensemble prediction (EPS) addresses this through computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Xinlei Xiong , Wenbo Hu , Shuxun Zhou , Kaifeng Bi , Lingxi Xie , Ying Liu , Richang Hong , Qi Tian

High-dimensional Bayesian optimization (BO) tasks such as molecular design often require 10,000 function evaluations before obtaining meaningful results. While methods like sparse variational Gaussian processes (SVGPs) reduce computational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Natalie Maus , Kyurae Kim , Geoff Pleiss , David Eriksson , John P. Cunningham , Jacob R. Gardner

While many advanced statistical methods for the design of experiments exist, it is still typical for physical experiments to be performed adaptively based on human intuition. As a consequence, experimental resources are wasted on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Anton van Beek

The construction of decision-theoretic Bayesian designs for realistically-complex nonlinear models is computationally challenging, as it requires the optimization of analytically intractable expected utility functions over high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-01 Antony Overstall , David Woods

Although Bayesian Optimization (BO) has been employed for accelerating materials design in computational materials engineering, existing works are restricted to problems with quantitative variables. However, real designs of materials…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-07 Yichi Zhang , Daniel Apley , Wei Chen

We introduce Interactive Bayesian Distributional Robustness (IBDR), a novel Bayesian inference framework that allows modeling the interactions between particles, thereby enhancing ensemble quality through increased particle diversity. IBDR…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Ngoc-Quan Pham , Tuan Truong , Quyen Tran , Tan Nguyen , Dinh Phung , Trung Le

Exact inference of the most probable explanation (MPE) in Bayesian networks is known to be NP-complete. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for approximate MPE inference that is based on the incremental build-infer-approximate (IBIA)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Shivani Bathla , Vinita Vasudevan

In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity Bayesian experimental design framework to efficiently quantify the extreme-event statistics of an input-to-response (ItR) system with given input probability and expensive function evaluations. The…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-01-04 Xianliang Gong , Yulin Pan