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One of the difficulties of conversion rate (CVR) prediction is that the conversions can delay and take place long after the clicks. The delayed feedback poses a challenge: fresh data are beneficial to continuous training but may not have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-13 Siyu Gu , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Ying Fan , Guorui Zhou , Xiaoqiang Zhu

Conversion prediction plays an important role in online advertising since Cost-Per-Action (CPA) has become one of the primary campaign performance objectives in the industry. Unlike click prediction, conversions have different types in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-10 Junwei Pan , Yizhi Mao , Alfonso Lobos Ruiz , Yu Sun , Aaron Flores

Position bias, the phenomenon whereby users tend to focus on higher-ranked items of the search result list regardless of the actual relevance to queries, is prevailing in many ranking systems. Position bias in training data biases the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Yibo Wang , Yanbing Xue , Bo Liu , Musen Wen , Wenting Zhao , Stephen Guo , Philip S. Yu

Improving the performance of click-through rate (CTR) prediction remains one of the core tasks in online advertising systems. With the rise of deep learning, CTR prediction models with deep networks remarkably enhance model capacities. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Yikai Wang , Liang Zhang , Quanyu Dai , Fuchun Sun , Bo Zhang , Yang He , Weipeng Yan , Yongjun Bao

The conversion rate (CVR) is a crucial metric for evaluating the effectiveness of platforms, as it quantifies the alignment of content with audience preferences. However, the limited nature of customers' conversion actions presents a…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Guohao Cai , Jun Yuan , Zhenhua Dong

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) estimation is a vital task in many recommender systems of revenue businesses, e.g., e-commerce and advertising. In a perspective of sample, a typical CVR positive sample usually goes through a funnel of…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Wei Cheng , Yucheng Lu , Boyang Xia , Jiangxia Cao , Kuan Xu , Mingxing Wen , Wei Jiang , Jiaming Zhang , Zhaojie Liu , Liyin Hong , Kun Gai , Guorui Zhou

Promotions are becoming more important and prevalent in e-commerce to attract customers and boost sales, leading to frequent changes of occasions, which drives users to behave differently. In such situations, most existing Click-Through…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-31 Xiaofeng Pan , Yibin Shen , Jing Zhang , Xu He , Yang Huang , Hong Wen , Chengjun Mao , Bo Cao

Momentum strategies are an important part of alternative investments and are at the heart of commodity trading advisors (CTAs). These strategies have, however, been found to have difficulties adjusting to rapid changes in market conditions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-21 Kieran Wood , Stephen Roberts , Stefan Zohren

Different from large-scale platforms such as Taobao and Amazon, CVR modeling in small-scale recommendation scenarios is more challenging due to the severe Data Distribution Fluctuation (DDF) issue. DDF prevents existing CVR models from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-29 Xiaofeng Pan , Ming Li , Jing Zhang , Keren Yu , Luping Wang , Hong Wen , Chengjun Mao , Bo Cao

In online advertising, marketing interventions such as coupons introduce significant confounding bias into Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. Observed clicks reflect a mixture of users' intrinsic preferences and the uplift induced by…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Siyun Yang , Shixiao Yang , Jian Wang , Di Fan , Kehe Cai , Haoyan Fu , Jiaming Zhang , Wenjin Wu , Peng Jiang

In industrial recommender systems, conversion rate (CVR) is widely used for traffic allocation, but it fails to fully reflect recommendation effectiveness because it ignores refund behavior. To better capture true user satisfaction and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Mingxuan Luo , Guipeng Xv , Sishuo Chen , Xinyu Li , Li Zhang , Zhangming Chan , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Han Zhu , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng , Chen Lin

In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate, that is, the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, such as purchasing goods is fundamental in estimating the value of displaying the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Shota Yasui , Gota Morishita , Komei Fujita , Masashi Shibata

Visual imagery is indispensable to many multi-attribute decision situations. Examples of such decision situations in travel behaviour research include residential location choices, vehicle choices, tourist destination choices, and various…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Sander van Cranenburgh , Francisco Garrido-Valenzuela

Multi-Task Learning (MTL) plays a crucial role in real-world advertising applications such as recommender systems, aiming to achieve robust representations while minimizing resource consumption. MTL endeavors to simultaneously optimize…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Furkan Durmus , Hasan Saribas , Said Aldemir , Junyan Yang , Hakan Cevikalp

The prediction objectives of online advertisement ranking models are evolving from probabilistic metrics like conversion rate (CVR) to numerical business metrics like post-click gross merchandise volume (GMV). Unlike the well-studied…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Xinyu Li , Sishuo Chen , Guipeng Xv , Li Zhang , Mingxuan Luo , Zhangming Chan , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Han Zhu , Jian Xu , Chen Lin

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction, crucial in applications like recommender systems and online advertising, involves ranking items based on the likelihood of user clicks. User behavior sequence modeling has marked progress in CTR…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Hengyu Zhang , Chang Meng , Wei Guo , Huifeng Guo , Jieming Zhu , Guangpeng Zhao , Ruiming Tang , Xiu Li

Click-through rate(CTR) prediction is a core task in cost-per-click(CPC) advertising systems and has been studied extensively by machine learning practitioners. While many existing methods have been successfully deployed in practice, most…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Ke Hu , Yi Qi , Jianqiang Huang , Jia Cheng , Jun Lei

Advertising click-through rate (CTR) prediction aims to forecast the probability that a user will click on an advertisement in a given context, thus providing enterprises with decision support for product ranking and ad placement. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Xiaowei Xi , Song Leng , Yuqing Gong , Dalin Li

The predictions of click through rate (CTR) and conversion rate (CVR) play a crucial role in the success of ad-recommendation systems. A Deep Hierarchical Ensemble Network (DHEN) has been proposed to integrate multiple feature crossing…

Forecasting faithful trajectories of multivariate time series from practical scopes is essential for reasonable decision-making. Recent methods majorly tailor generative conditional diffusion models to estimate the target temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Siyang Li , Yize Chen , Hui Xiong