Related papers: Optimal basis risk weighting in expectile-based pa…
Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials.…
Inference-time scaling methods rely on Process Reward Models (PRMs), which are often poorly calibrated and overestimate success probabilities. We propose, to our knowledge, the first use of conditional optimal transport for calibrating…
This paper proposes a new approach to estimating the distribution of a response variable conditioned on observing some factors. The proposed approach possesses desirable properties of flexibility, interpretability, tractability and…
The distribution of health care payments to insurance plans has substantial consequences for social policy. Risk adjustment formulas predict spending in health insurance markets in order to provide fair benefits and health care coverage for…
We address the problem of sharing risk among agents with preferences modelled by a general class of comonotonic additive and law-based functionals that need not be either monotone or convex. Such functionals are called distortion…
Bernard et al. (2015) study an optimal insurance design problem where an individual's preference is of the rank-dependent utility (RDU) type, and show that in general an optimal contract covers both large and small losses. However, their…
I analyze long-term contracting in insurance markets with asymmetric information. The buyer privately observes her risk type, which evolves stochastically over time. A long-term contract specifies a menu of insurance policies, contingent on…
Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity…
De Finetti's optimal reinsurance is a set of contracts, one for each risk in a portfolio, that caps the retained aggregate variance to a pre-specified level while minimizing total expected loss. The premiums are determined using the…
We derive distributional limits for empirical transport distances between probability measures supported on countable sets. Our approach is based on sensitivity analysis of optimal values of infinite dimensional mathematical programs and a…
Causal decomposition analysis aims to assess the effect of modifying risk factors on reducing social disparities in outcomes. Recently, this analysis has incorporated individual characteristics when modifying risk factors by utilizing…
Causal graphs may inform covariate adjustment for estimating causal effects and improve estimation efficiency by exploiting the graphical structure. In many applications, however, the target causal parameter may not be point-identified due…
For nonparametric regression with one-sided errors and a boundary curve model for Poisson point processes we consider the problem of efficient estimation for linear functionals. The minimax optimal rate is obtained by an unbiased estimation…
In this paper, an optimization problem with uncertain constraint coefficients is considered. Possibility theory is used to model the uncertainty. Namely, a joint possibility distribution in constraint coefficient realizations, called…
Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…
We expose a theoretical hedging optimization framework with variational preferences under convex risk measures. We explore a general dual representation for the composition between risk measures and utilities. We study the properties of the…
Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…
Uncertainty in return level estimates for rare events, like the intensity of large rainfall events, makes it difficult to develop strategies to mitigate related hazards, like flooding. Latent spatial extremes models reduce uncertainty by…
We examine a problem of demand for insurance indemnification, when the insured is sensitive to ambiguity and behaves according to the Maxmin-Expected Utility model of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989), whereas the insurer is a (risk-averse or…
In this paper, we study convex risk measures with weak optimal transport penalties. In a first step, we show that these risk measures allow for an explicit representation via a nonlinear transform of the loss function. In a second step, we…