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Related papers: Calibeating Prediction-Powered Inference

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Objective: Using traditional approaches, a Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) requires the collection of calibration data for new subjects prior to online use. Calibration time can be reduced or eliminated e.g.~by transfer of a pre-trained…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-05 D Hübner , T Verhoeven , K Schmid , K-R Müller , M Tangermann , P-J Kindermans

Real-world data is frequently noisy and ambiguous. In crowdsourcing, for example, human annotators may assign conflicting class labels to the same instances. Partial-label learning (PLL) addresses this challenge by training classifiers when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-12 Tobias Fuchs , Nadja Klein

Existing semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms use a single weight to balance the loss of labeled and unlabeled examples, i.e., all unlabeled examples are equally weighted. But not all unlabeled data are equal. In this paper we study…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Zhongzheng Ren , Raymond A. Yeh , Alexander G. Schwing

In modern data analysis, it is common to use machine learning methods to predict outcomes on unlabeled datasets and then use these pseudo-outcomes in subsequent statistical inference. Inference in this setting is often called…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-04 Feng Gan , Wanfeng Liang , Changliang Zou

Matching is a widely used causal inference design that aims to approximate a randomized experiment using observational data by forming matched sets of treated and control units based on similarities in their covariates. Ideally, treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-06 Jianan Zhu , Jeffrey Zhang , Zijian Guo , Siyu Heng

In the era of increasingly complex AI models for time series forecasting, progress is often measured by marginal improvements on benchmark leaderboards. However, this approach suffers from a fundamental flaw: standard evaluation metrics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Wanjin Feng , Yuan Yuan , Jingtao Ding , Yong Li

Being cautious is crucial for enhancing the trustworthiness of machine learning systems integrated into decision-making pipelines. Although calibrated probabilities help in optimal decision-making, perfect calibration remains unattainable,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Mari-Liis Allikivi , Joonas Järve , Meelis Kull

In a split conformal framework with $K$ classes, a calibration sample of $n$ labeled examples is observed for inference on the label of a new unlabeled example. We explore the setting where a `batch' of $m$ independent such unlabeled…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-19 Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Etienne Roquain , Aldo Solari

In this work, we propose data augmentation methods for embeddings from pre-trained deep learning models that take a weighted combination of a pair of input embeddings, as inspired by Mixup, and combine such augmentation with extra label…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-07 Cameron R. Wolfe , Keld T. Lundgaard

Post-hoc multi-class calibration is a common approach for providing high-quality confidence estimates of deep neural network predictions. Recent work has shown that widely used scaling methods underestimate their calibration error, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Kanil Patel , William Beluch , Bin Yang , Michael Pfeiffer , Dan Zhang

Data integration methods aim to extract low-dimensional embeddings from high-dimensional outcomes to remove unwanted variations, such as batch effects and unmeasured covariates, across heterogeneous datasets. However, multiple hypothesis…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-15 Jin-Hong Du , Kathryn Roeder , Larry Wasserman

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Probabilistic predictions from neural networks which account for predictive uncertainty during classification is crucial in many real-world and high-impact decision making settings. However, in practice most datasets are trained on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Satya Borgohain , Klaus Ackermann , Ruben Loaiza-Maya

Learning from large amounts of unsupervised data and a small amount of supervision is an important open problem in computer vision. We propose a new semi-supervised learning method, Semantic Positives via Pseudo-Labels (SemPPL), that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-01-11 Matko Bošnjak , Pierre H. Richemond , Nenad Tomasev , Florian Strub , Jacob C. Walker , Felix Hill , Lars Holger Buesing , Razvan Pascanu , Charles Blundell , Jovana Mitrovic

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-24 Insung Kong , Yuha Park , Joonhyuk Jung , Kwonsang Lee , Yongdai Kim

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) has long been proved to be an effective technique to construct powerful models with limited labels. In the existing literature, consistency regularization-based methods, which force the perturbed samples to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Xihong Yang , Xiaochang Hu , Sihang Zhou , Xinwang Liu , En Zhu

We propose a simple and efficient approach to generate a prediction intervals (PI) for approximated and forecasted trends. Our method leverages a weighted asymmetric loss function to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PI, with the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-20 Milo Grillo , Yunpeng Han , Agnieszka Werpachowska

Modern alignment pipelines are increasingly replacing expensive human preference labels with evaluations from large language models (LLM-as-Judge). However, AI labels can be systematically biased compared to high-quality human feedback…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Xintao Xia , Zhiqiu Xia , Linjun Zhang , Zhanrui Cai

Consider the problem of estimating average treatment effects when a large number of covariates are used to adjust for possible confounding through outcome regression and propensity score models. The conventional approach of model building…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 Zhiqiang Tan

The inverse probability weighting (IPW) is broadly utilized to address missing data problems including causal inference but may suffer from large variances and biases due to propensity score model misspecification. To solve these problems,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-05 Hiroto Katsumata