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Standard evaluations of Bayesian deep learning methods assume that metric estimates are reliable, but we show this assumption fails under data scarcity. Method rankings are not only unreliable at small $n$, but also dataset-dependent in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Qishi Zhan , Minxuan Hu , Guansu Wang , Jiaxin Liu , Liang He

Consumer protection rules require companies that deploy models to automate decisions in high-stakes settings to explain predictions to decision subjects. These rules are motivated, in part, by the belief that explanations can promote…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-30 Harry Cheon , Anneke Wernerfelt , Sorelle A. Friedler , Berk Ustun

While the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) are powerful tools for model selection in linear regression, they are built on different prior assumptions and thereby apply to different data generation…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-15 MB de Kock , HC Eggers

Explainable AI (XAI) in high-stakes domains should help stakeholders trust and verify system outputs. Yet Chain-of-Thought methods reason before concluding, and logical gaps or hallucinations can yield conclusions that do not reliably align…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Chen Qian , Yimeng Wang , Yu Chen , Lingfei Wu , Andreas Stathopoulos

Realistically -- and equitably -- modeling the dynamics of group-level disparities in machine learning remains an open problem. In particular, we desire models that do not suppose inherent differences between artificial groups of people --…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-03 Reilly Raab , Yang Liu

There is a fundamental limitation in the prediction performance that a machine learning model can achieve due to the inevitable uncertainty of the prediction target. In classification problems, this can be characterized by the Bayes error,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-14 Takashi Ishida , Ikko Yamane , Nontawat Charoenphakdee , Gang Niu , Masashi Sugiyama

Large language models now write software, draft legal documents, and produce clinical notes, yet fundamental limits, from Turing and Arrow to the No Free Lunch theorems, shape what computation can do. This thesis turns such impossibility…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Dongxin Guo

Technical and legal debates frequently suggest that "accuracy" is an objective, measurable, and purely technical property. We challenge this view, showing that evaluating AI performance fundamentally depends on context-dependent normative…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Lucas G. Uberti-Bona Marin , Bram Rijsbosch , Kristof Meding , Gerasimos Spanakis , Gijs van Dijck , Konrad Kollnig

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming the corner stone of many systems used in our daily lives such as autonomous vehicles, healthcare systems, and unmanned aircraft systems. Machine Learning is a field of AI that enables systems to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-27 Lionel Nganyewou Tidjon , Foutse Khomh

We present CAIA, a benchmark exposing a critical blind spot in AI evaluation: the inability of state-of-the-art models to operate in adversarial, high-stakes environments where misinformation is weaponized and errors are irreversible. While…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Zeshi Dai , Zimo Peng , Zerui Cheng , Ryan Yihe Li

To use machine learning in high stakes applications (e.g. medicine), we need tools for building confidence in the system and evaluating whether it is reliable. Methods to improve model reliability often require new learning algorithms (e.g.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Peter Schulam , Suchi Saria

We study how people trade off accuracy when using AI-powered tools in professional versus personal contexts for adoption purposes, the determinants of those trade-offs, and how users cope when AI/apps are unavailable. Because modern AI…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Gaston Besanson , Federico Todeschini

With the ever-growing achievements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the recent boosted enthusiasm in Financial Technology (FinTech), applications such as credit scoring have gained substantial academic interest. Credit scoring helps…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-08 Lara Marie Demajo , Vince Vella , Alexiei Dingli

In high-stakes automated decision-making, access to predictive uncertainty is essential for enabling users -- human or downstream systems -- to accept or reject predictions based on application-specific cost trade-offs. Such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Lautaro Estienne , Erik Ernst , Matías Vera , Pablo Piantanida , Luciana Ferrer

The widespread adoption of generative AI models has raised growing concerns about representational harm and potential discriminatory outcomes. Yet, despite growing literature on this topic, the mechanisms by which bias emerges - especially…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Xiaofeng Zhang , Michelle Lin , Simon Lacoste-Julien , Aaron Courville , Yash Goyal

The Cram\'er-Rao bound serves as a crucial lower limit for the mean squared error of an estimator in frequentist parameter estimation. Paradoxically, it requires highly accurate prior knowledge of the estimated parameter for constructing…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-21 Javier Navarro , Ricard Ravell Rodríguez , Mikel Sanz

With the increasing pervasive use of machine learning in social and economic settings, there has been an interest in the notion of machine bias in the AI community. Models trained on historic data reflect biases that exist in society and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Kailash Karthik Saravanakumar

In the framework of matrix valued observables with low rank means, Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE) can be useful for risk estimation and for tuning the amount of shrinkage towards low rank matrices. This was demonstrated by Cand\`es…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-01 Niels Richard Hansen

A/B testing is ubiquitous within the machine learning and data science operations of internet companies. Generically, the idea is to perform a statistical test of the hypothesis that a new feature is better than the existing platform---for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-11 David Goldberg , James E. Johndrow

A lower bound is an important tool for predicting the performance that an estimator can achieve under a particular statistical model. Bayesian bounds are a kind of such bounds which not only utilizes the observation statistics but also…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-02 Shuo Tang , Gerald LaMountain , Tales Imbiriba , Pau Closas
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