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Related papers: Too Sharp, Too Sure: When Calibration Follows Curv…

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Model miscalibration has been frequently identified in modern deep neural networks. Recent work aims to improve model calibration directly through a differentiable calibration proxy. However, the calibration produced is often biased due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-26 Cheng Wang , Jacek Golebiowski

The highly non-linear nature of deep neural networks causes them to be susceptible to adversarial examples and have unstable gradients which hinders interpretability. However, existing methods to solve these issues, such as adversarial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-11 Suraj Srinivas , Kyle Matoba , Himabindu Lakkaraju , Francois Fleuret

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Victor Dheur , Souhaib Ben Taieb

Graphs can model real-world, complex systems by representing entities and their interactions in terms of nodes and edges. To better exploit the graph structure, graph neural networks have been developed, which learn entity and edge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Tong Liu , Yushan Liu , Marcel Hildebrandt , Mitchell Joblin , Hang Li , Volker Tresp

Data-sparse settings such as robotic manipulation, molecular physics, and galaxy morphology classification are some of the hardest domains for deep learning. For these problems, equivariant networks can help improve modeling across…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Edward Berman , Jacob Ginesin , Marco Pacini , Robin Walters

The deployment of machine learning classifiers in high-stakes domains requires well-calibrated confidence scores for model predictions. In this paper we introduce the notion of variable-based calibration to characterize calibration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-07 Markelle Kelly , Padhraic Smyth

Deep neural networks have been increasingly used in safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis and autonomous driving. However, many studies suggest that they are prone to being poorly calibrated and have a propensity for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Chengli Tan , Yubo Zhou , Haishan Ye , Guang Dai , Junmin Liu , Zengjie Song , Jiangshe Zhang , Zixiang Zhao , Yunda Hao , Yong Xu

Probabilistic predictions from neural networks which account for predictive uncertainty during classification is crucial in many real-world and high-impact decision making settings. However, in practice most datasets are trained on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Satya Borgohain , Klaus Ackermann , Ruben Loaiza-Maya

Curvature influences generalization, robustness, and how reliably neural networks respond to small input perturbations. Existing sharpness metrics are typically defined in parameter space (e.g., Hessian eigenvalues) and can be expensive,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Jacob Poschl

Machine unlearning aims to remove the influence of specific training data from a model while preserving reliable behavior on the remaining data, making reliable prediction and uncertainty estimation essential for evaluation. Calibration is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Divyaksh Shukla , Ashutosh Modi

Calibration is a critical requirement for reliable probabilistic prediction, especially in high-risk applications. However, the theoretical understanding of which learning algorithms can simultaneously achieve high accuracy and good…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-07 Futoshi Futami , Atsushi Nitanda

In the field of medical image analysis, achieving high accuracy is not enough; ensuring well-calibrated predictions is also crucial. Confidence scores of a deep neural network play a pivotal role in explainability by providing insights into…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Abhishek Singh Sambyal , Usma Niyaz , Narayanan C. Krishnan , Deepti R. Bathula

Uncertainty in probabilistic classifiers predictions is a key concern when models are used to support human decision making, in broader probabilistic pipelines or when sensitive automatic decisions have to be taken. Studies have shown that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-09 Nicolas Posocco , Antoine Bonnefoy

Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Charles Marx , Sofian Zalouk , Stefano Ermon

Estimated uncertainty by approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks are prone to miscalibration, which leads to overconfident predictions in critical tasks that have a clear asymmetric cost or significant losses. Here, we extend the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Biraja Ghoshal , Allan Tucker

A lot of effort is currently invested in safeguarding autonomous driving systems, which heavily rely on deep neural networks for computer vision. We investigate the coupling of different neural network calibration measures with a special…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Dominik Werner Wolf , Prasannavenkatesh Balaji , Alexander Braun , Markus Ulrich

Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Fabian Küppers , Jan Kronenberger , Jonas Schneider , Anselm Haselhoff

When training deep neural networks with gradient descent, sharpness often increases -- a phenomenon known as progressive sharpening -- before saturating at the edge of stability. Although commonly observed in practice, the underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Geonhui Yoo , Minhak Song , Chulhee Yun