Related papers: Extrapolation from historical data cannot reliably…
Coastal flooding drives considerable risks to many communities, but projections of future flood risks are deeply uncertain. The paucity of observations of extreme events often motivates the use of statistical approaches to model the…
The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the Southern Ocean is investigated using hydrographic observations combined with satellite observations of sea-surface height. A three-dimensional (spatial and vertical) estimate of the…
Slope failures possess destructive power that can cause significant damage to both life and infrastructure. Monitoring slopes prone to instabilities is therefore critical in mitigating the risk posed by their failure. The purpose of slope…
Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…
During the last ice age several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events took place. Known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature anomalies.…
This paper addresses the open problem of conducting change-point analysis for interval-valued time series data using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) framework. Motivated by financial time series, we analyze data that includes daily…
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…
We discover a remarkable correlation between the inter-tremor time interval and the slenderness ratio of the overriding plate in subduction zones all over the world. In order to understand this phenomenon better, we perform numerical…
In this study we used the sea surface temperature (SST), El-Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time-series for the time period 1900-2012 in order to investigate plausible manifestation of sharp increases…
We present a detailed analysis of the temperature statistics in an oceanographic observational dataset. The data are collected using a moored array of thermistors, 100 m tall and starting 5 m above the bottom, deployed during four months…
Vertical motions across the ocean are central to processes, like CO$_2$ fixation, heat removal or pollutant transport, which are essential to the Earth's climate. This work explores 3D conveyor routes {associated with} the Atlantic…
Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…
Prediction uncertainty estimation has clinical significance as it can potentially quantify prediction reliability. Clinicians may trust 'blackbox' models more if robust reliability information is available, which may lead to more models…
Missing instances in time series data impose a significant challenge to deep learning models, particularly in regression tasks. In the Earth Observation field, satellite failure or cloud occlusion frequently results in missing time-steps,…
Time-delay embedding is a fundamental technique in Topological Data Analysis (TDA) for reconstructing the phase space dynamics of time-series data. Persistent homology effectively identifies global topological features, such as loops…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is often analyzed using low-order box models to understand tipping points. Historically, these studies focus on freshwater flux as the primary bifurcation parameter, treating the…
This text presents one of the first successful applications of a rare events method for the study of multistability in a turbulent flow without stochastic energy injection. The trajectories of collapse of turbulence in plane Couette flow,…
We propose a novel framework to classify large-scale time series data with long duration. Long time seriesclassification (L-TSC) is a challenging problem because the dataoften contains a large amount of irrelevant information to…
The effects of sampling rate and total measurement time have been determined for single-point measurements of step fluctuations within the context of first-passage properties. Time dependent STM has been used to evaluate step fluctuations…