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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-03-09 Reyk Börner , Oliver Mehling , Jost von Hardenberg , Valerio Lucarini

Machine Learning has become a pervasive tool in climate science applications. However, current models fail to address nonstationarity induced by anthropogenic alterations in greenhouse emissions and do not routinely quantify the uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-22 Simon Dräger , Maike Sonnewald

Climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but the magnitude is highly uncertain. Some of this uncertainty is structural, as most climate models neglect increasing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-26 Oliver Mehling , Henk A. Dijkstra

We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event techniques is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-09 Valérian Jacques-Dumas , Henk A. Dijkstra , Christian Kuehn

A catastrophic collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will have serious impacts on global climate. Based on eight AMOC proxies across the Atlantic basin Boers claimed to have found Early Warning Signals (EWS)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-22 Xianyao Chen , Ka-Kit Tung

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-10-26 Andrea A. Cimatoribus , Matthijs den Toom , Sybren S. Drijfhout , Henk A. Dijkstra

Recently the global average temperature has temporarily exceeded the 1.5{\deg}C goal of the Paris Agreement, and so an overshoot of various climate tipping elements becomes increasingly likely. In this study we analyze the physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-18 Jelle Soons , Tobias Grafke , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) distributes heat and salt into the Northern Hemisphere via a warm surface current toward the subpolar North Atlantic, where water sinks and returns southwards as a deep cold current.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-08-01 John Bailie , Bernd Krauskopf

A statistical indicator for dynamic stability known as the $\Upsilon$ indicator is used to gauge the stability and hence detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced 5-box model of the North-Atlantic Meridional…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-06-19 Hassan Alkhayuon , Peter Ashwin , Laura C Jackson , Courtney Quinn , Richard A Wood

One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-08-14 Maya Ben-Yami , Andreas Morr , Sebastian Bathiany , Niklas Boers

The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a system of surface and deep currents encompassing all ocean basins, crucial to the Earth's climate. Detecting potential climatic changes in the MOC first requires a careful characterisation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-08-26 Tomas Jonathan

Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Oliver Mehling , Katinka Bellomo , Jost von Hardenberg

Observations are increasingly used to detect critical slowing down (CSD) to measure stability changes in key Earth system components. However, most datasets have non-stationary missing-data distributions, biases and uncertainties. Here we…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-03-14 Maya Ben-Yami , Vanessa Skiba , Sebastian Bathiany , Niklas Boers

The tipping of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to a 'shutdown' state due to changes in the freshwater forcing of the ocean is of particular interest and concern due to its widespread ramifications, including a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-06-09 Alannah Neff , Andrew Keane , Henk A. Dijkstra , Bernd Krauskopf

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) describes variations of North Atlantic sea surface temperature with a typical cycle of between 60 and 70 years. AMV strongly impacts local climate over North America and Europe, therefore prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Glenn Liu , Peidong Wang , Matthew Beveridge , Young-Oh Kwon , Iddo Drori

The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Han Huang , Ningning Tao , Hongyu Wang , Teng Liu , Fei Xie , Xichen Li , Yongwen Zhang , Niklas Boers , Jingfang Fan , Deliang Chen , Xiaosong Chen

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth's climate. Evidence indicates a twentieth-century weakening, and enhanced freshwater input to the subpolar North Atlantic may further reduce overturning…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-13 John Bailie , Priya Subramanian , Bernd Krauskopf

Observations from the RAPID array near 26.5$^\circ$N indicate a linear decline in the AMOC over the past two decades, linked to contrasting boundary changes: a weakening western boundary contribution partly compensated by strengthening at…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-29 Qianjiang Xing , Shane Elipot , William E. Johns , Bablu Sinha , Jules Kajtar , Adam T. Blaker , Tillys Petit , Ben I. Moat , David A. Smeed

Tropical cyclones (TCs), driven by heat exchange between the air and sea, pose a substantial risk to many communities around the world. Accurate characterization of the subsurface ocean thermal response to TC passage is crucial for accurate…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-18 Addison J. Hu , Mikael Kuusela , Ann B. Lee , Donata Giglio , Kimberly M. Wood