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In the critical beta-splitting model of a random $n$-leaf binary tree, leaf-sets are recursively split into subsets, and a set of $m$ leaves is split into subsets containing $i$ and $m-i$ leaves with probabilities proportional to…
We extend Goldie's (1991) Implicit Renewal Theorem to enable the analysis of recursions on weighted branching trees. We illustrate the developed method by deriving the power tail asymptotics of the distributions of the solutions R to: R =_D…
The study of tail behaviour of SGD-induced processes has been attracting a lot of interest, due to offering strong guarantees with respect to individual runs of an algorithm. While many works provide high-probability guarantees, quantifying…
Anomaly detection methods are widely used but often rely on ad hoc rules or strong assumptions, and they often focus on tail events, missing ``inlier'' anomalies that occur in low-density gaps between modes. We propose a unified framework…
We study the properties of random walks on complex trees. We observe that the absence of loops reflects in physical observables showing large differences with respect to their looped counterparts. First, both the vertex discovery rate and…
Bounds for the expected return probability of the delayed random walk on finite clusters of an invariant percolation on transitive unimodular graphs are derived. They are particularly suited for the case of critical Bernoulli percolation…
We study effective randomness-preserving transformations of path-incompressible trees. Some path-incompressible trees with infinitely many paths do not compute perfect path-random trees with computable oracle-use. Sparse perfect…
We consider growing random recursive trees in random environment, in which at each step a new vertex is attached (by an edge of a random length) to an existing tree vertex according to a probability distribution that assigns the tree…
We discuss the quenched tail estimates for the random walk in random scenery. The random walk is the symmetric nearest neighbor walk and the random scenery is assumed to be independent and identically distributed, non-negative, and has a…
Extreme events are by nature rare and difficult to predict, yet are often much more important than frequent, typical events. An interesting counterpoint to the prediction of such events is their retrodiction -- given a process in an outlier…
This is a continuation of our earlier work [Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 129(1), pp.102--128, 2019] on the random walk in random scenery and in random layered conductance. We complete the picture of upper deviation of the…
Given any regularly varying dislocation measure, we identify a natural self-similar fragmentation tree as scaling limit of discrete fragmentation trees with unit edge lengths. As an application, we obtain continuum random tree limits of…
This paper studies the behavior of RWRE on trees in the critical case left open in previous work. For trees of exponential growth, a random perturbation of the transition probabilities can change a transient random walk into a recurrent…
In this paper, we compute multivariate tail risk probabilities where the marginal risks are heavy-tailed and the dependence structure is a Gaussian copula. The marginal heavy-tailed risks are modeled using regular variation which leads to a…
We show, under natural conditions, that uniform rooted trees with fixed degree sequence converge after renormalization toward inhomogeneous continuum random trees (ICRT). We also provide a sharp upper-bound for the tail of their heights. We…
We study the lower tail large deviation problem for subgraph counts in a random graph. Let $X_H$ denote the number of copies of $H$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. We are interested in estimating the lower tail…
We study the large-time asymptotic of renewal-reward processes with a heavy-tailed waiting time distribution. It is known that the heavy tail of the distribution produces an extremely slow dynamics, resulting in a singular large deviation…
We consider autoregressive sequences $X_n=aX_{n-1}+\xi_n$ and $M_n=\max\{aM_{n-1},\xi_n\}$ with a constant $a\in(0,1)$ and with positive, independent and identically distributed innovations $\{\xi_k\}$. It is known that if $\mathbf…
We study the problem of random search in finite networks with a tree topology, where it is expected that the distribution of the first-passage time F(t) decays exponentially. We show that the slope of the exponential tail is independent of…
We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…