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Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Reliable inference of system degradation from sensor data is fundamental to condition monitoring and prognostics in mechanical and infrastructural systems. Since degradation is rarely directly observable and measurable, it must be inferred…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Mengjie Zhao , Olga Fink

Across many domains of science, stochastic models are an essential tool to understand the mechanisms underlying empirically observed data. Models can be of different levels of detail and accuracy, with models of high-fidelity (i.e., high…

Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Wang Yuyan , Michael Evans , David J. Nott

Discrete Markov random fields are undirected graphical models that capture complex conditional dependencies between discrete variables. Conducting exact posterior inference in these models is often computationally challenging because…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Giuseppe Arena , Maarten Marsman

Inference models are a key component in scaling variational inference to deep latent variable models, most notably as encoder networks in variational auto-encoders (VAEs). By replacing conventional optimization-based inference with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-26 Joseph Marino , Yisong Yue , Stephan Mandt

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems. However, for nonlinear oscillator networks such as Kuramoto models, widely used to study synchronization phenomena in…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-24 Emma Hannula , Jana de Wiljes , Matthew T. Moores , Heikki Haario , Lassi Roininen

1. Understanding the mechanisms underlying biological systems, and ultimately, predicting their behaviours in a changing environment requires overcoming the gap between mathematical models and experimental or observational data.…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-04-19 Philipp H Boersch-Supan , Sadie J Ryan , Leah R Johnson

Simulation-based inference has been popular for amortized Bayesian computation. It is typical to have more than one posterior approximation, from different inference algorithms, different architectures, or simply the randomness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-04 Yuling Yao , Bruno Régaldo-Saint Blancard , Justin Domke

In the domain of moment retrieval, accurately identifying temporal segments within videos based on natural language queries remains challenging. Traditional methods often employ pre-trained models that struggle with fine-grained information…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Haojian Huang , Kaijing Ma , Jin Chen , Haodong Chen , Zhou Wu , Xianghao Zang , Han Fang , Chao Ban , Hao Sun , Mulin Chen , Zhongjiang He

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-10-14 Ramis Khabibullin , Sergei Seleznev

Mechanistic models of single-neuron dynamics have been extensively studied in computational neuroscience. However, identifying which models can quantitatively reproduce empirically measured data has been challenging. We propose to overcome…

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inferential methods for data from controlled branching processes that account for model robustness through the use of disparities. Under regularity conditions, we establish that estimators built on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-19 M. González , C. Minuesa , I. del Puerto , A. N. Vidyashankar

Stochastic differential equation mixed-effects models (SDEMEMs) are flexible hierarchical models that are able to account for random variability inherent in the underlying time-dynamics, as well as the variability between experimental units…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-22 Samuel Wiqvist , Andrew Golightly , Ashleigh T. McLean , Umberto Picchini

We present results of high-resolution spectroscopic observations of detached eclipsing binaries (DEBs) with total eclipses, for which UVES spectra were obtained during the phase of totality. With the additional, independent information on…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-11-13 Krzysztof G. Hełminiak , Justyna Olszewska , Maria Puciata-Mroczynska , Tilaksingh Pawar

We present the results of an analysis aimed at testing the accuracy and precision of the PARSEC v1.2S library of stellar evolution models, in a Bayesian framework, to infer stellar parameters. We mainly employ the online DEBCat catalogue by…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-06-22 Carlos del Burgo , Carlos Allende Prieto

Simulation plays a central role in scientific discovery. In many applications, the bottleneck is no longer running a simulator; it is choosing among large families of plausible simulators, each corresponding to different forward…

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

We develop a Bayesian inference method for discretely-observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Inference is challenging for most SDEs, due to the analytical intractability of the likelihood function. Nevertheless, forward…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-08 Petar Jovanovski , Andrew Golightly , Umberto Picchini

Calcium imaging permits optical measurement of neural activity. Since intracellular calcium concentration is an indirect measurement of neural activity, computational tools are necessary to infer the true underlying spiking activity from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Artur Speiser , Jinyao Yan , Evan Archer , Lars Buesing , Srinivas C. Turaga , Jakob H. Macke