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Individuals use models to guide decisions, but many models are wrong. This paper studies which misspecified models are likely to persist when individuals also entertain alternative models. Consider an agent who uses her model to learn the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-08-22 Cuimin Ba

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in metrology applications. However, for ML models to be credible in a metrology context they should be accompanied by principled uncertainty quantification. This paper addresses the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-09 Andrew Thompson

In many high-impact applications, it is important to ensure the quality of output of a machine learning algorithm as well as its reliability in comparison with the complexity of the algorithm used. In this paper, we have initiated a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-03 Katarina Doctor , Tong Mao , Hrushikesh Mhaskar

Rough sets (RS)proved a thriving realm with successes inn many fields of ML and AI. In this note, we expand RS to RM - rough mereology which provides a measurable degree of uncertainty to those areas.

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Lech T. Polkowski

We give a method for proactively identifying small, plausible shifts in distribution which lead to large differences in model performance. These shifts are defined via parametric changes in the causal mechanisms of observed variables, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Nikolaj Thams , Michael Oberst , David Sontag

Robust optimization is concerned with constructing solutions that remain feasible also when a limited number of resources is removed from the solution. Most studies of robust combinatorial optimization to date made the assumption that every…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-04-21 David Adjiashvili

In one perspective, the main theme of this research revolves around the inverse problem in the context of general rough sets that concerns the existence of rough basis for given approximations in a context. Granular operator spaces and…

Logic · Mathematics 2018-12-06 A. Mani

This book is devoted to the problem of sequential probability forecasting, that is, predicting the probabilities of the next outcome of a growing sequence of observations given the past. This problem is considered in a very general setting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Daniil Ryabko

In reinforcement learning (RL) theory, the concept of most confusing instances is central to establishing regret lower bounds, that is, the minimal exploration needed to solve a problem. Given a reference model and its optimal policy, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Waris Radji , Odalric-Ambrym Maillard

Uncertainty plays a crucial role in the machine learning field. Both model trustworthiness and performance require the understanding of uncertainty, especially for models used in high-stake applications where errors can cause cataclysmic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Shuo Chen

Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Valentin Arkov

Now a days, data mining and knowledge discovery methods are applied to a variety of enterprise and engineering disciplines to uncover interesting patterns from databases. The study of Sequential patterns is an important data mining problem…

Databases · Computer Science 2009-06-24 Jigyasa Bisaria , Namita Shrivastava , K. R. Pardasani

Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This paper develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzing quasi-experimental settings in the social…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Ashesh Rambachan , Jonathan Roth

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-08 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle

We study how to utilize (possibly erroneous) predictions in a model for computing under uncertainty in which an algorithm can query unknown data. Our aim is to minimize the number of queries needed to solve the minimum spanning tree…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-07-01 Thomas Erlebach , Murilo Santos de Lima , Nicole Megow , Jens Schlöter

Reachability analysis, in general, is a fundamental method that supports formally-correct synthesis, robust model predictive control, set-based observers, fault detection, invariant computation, and conformance checking, to name but a few.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-17 Niklas Kochdumper , Bastian Schürmann , Matthias Althoff

Model uncertainty is a crucial issue in statistics, econometrics and machine learning, yet its definition remains ambiguous and is subject to various interpretations in the literature. So far, there has not been a universally accepted…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Guangyuan Cui , Yuting Wei , Xinyu Zhang

In the context of general rough sets, the act of combining two things to form another is not straightforward. The situation is similar for other theories that concern uncertainty and vagueness. Such acts can be endowed with additional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-26 A Mani

This work proposes a robust data-driven predictive control approach for unknown nonlinear systems in the presence of bounded process and measurement noise. Data-driven reachable sets are employed for the controller design instead of using…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-18 Mahsa Farjadnia , Amr Alanwar , Muhammad Umar B. Niazi , Marco Molinari , Karl Henrik Johansson

In statistical inference, it is rarely realistic that the hypothesized statistical model is well-specified, and consequently it is important to understand the effects of misspecification on inferential procedures. When the hypothesized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Beomjo Park , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman