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Large language models (LLMs) often produce answers with high certainty even when they are incorrect, making reliable confidence estimation essential for deployment in real-world scenarios. Verbalized confidence, where models explicitly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Chen Li , Xiaoling Hu , Songzhu Zheng , Jiawei Zhou , Chao Chen

Large Language Models (LLMs) can exhibit considerable variation in the quality of their sampled outputs. Reranking and selecting the best generation from the sampled set is a popular way of obtaining strong gains in generation quality. In…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-01-15 Siddhartha Jain , Xiaofei Ma , Anoop Deoras , Bing Xiang

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated proficiency in handling complex queries, much of the past work has depended on extensively annotated datasets by human experts. However, this reliance on fully-supervised annotations…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-08 Yongqi Tong , Sizhe Wang , Dawei Li , Yifan Wang , Simeng Han , Zi Lin , Chengsong Huang , Jiaxin Huang , Jingbo Shang

Improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs) has largely relied on iterative self-training with model-generated data. While effective at boosting accuracy, existing approaches primarily reinforce successful reasoning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Jewon Yeom , Jaewon Sok , Seonghyeon Park , Jeongjae Park , Taesup Kim

We study calibration in question answering, estimating whether model correctly predicts answer for each question. Unlike prior work which mainly rely on the model's confidence score, our calibrator incorporates information about the input…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-04 Shujian Zhang , Chengyue Gong , Eunsol Choi

Synthetic chain-of-thought (CoT) traces are widely used to train large reasoning models (LRMs), improving generalization by providing step-level supervision. Yet most approaches require ground-truth labels to seed or filter these traces -…

Many applications of classification methods not only require high accuracy but also reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty. However, while many current classification frameworks, in particular deep neural networks, achieve high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-28 Jonathan Wenger , Hedvig Kjellström , Rudolph Triebel

Modern image classifiers are very accurate, but the predictions come without uncertainty estimates. Conformal predictors provide uncertainty estimates by computing a set of classes containing the correct class with a user-specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Fatih Furkan Yilmaz , Reinhard Heckel

Machine learning applications often require calibrated predictions, e.g. a 90\% credible interval should contain the true outcome 90\% of the times. However, typical definitions of calibration only require this to hold on average, and offer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-10 Shengjia Zhao , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable emergent capabilities through extensive pre-training, they still face critical limitations in generalizing to specialized domains and handling diverse linguistic variations, known…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Jinwu Hu , Zhitian Zhang , Guohao Chen , Xutao Wen , Chao Shuai , Wei Luo , Bin Xiao , Yuanqing Li , Mingkui Tan

Large language models are often assumed to acquire increasingly structured, generalizable internal representations simply by scaling data and parameters. We interrogate this assumption by introducing a Clinical Trial Natural Language…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Maël Jullien , Marco Valentino , André Freitas

Reasoning language models have set state-of-the-art (SOTA) records on many challenging benchmarks, enabled by multi-step reasoning induced using reinforcement learning. However, like previous language models, reasoning models are prone to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-21 Zhiting Mei , Christina Zhang , Tenny Yin , Justin Lidard , Ola Shorinwa , Anirudha Majumdar

As large language models attract increasing attention and find widespread application, concurrent challenges of reliability also arise at the same time. Confidence calibration, an effective analysis method for gauging the reliability of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Chiwei Zhu , Benfeng Xu , Quan Wang , Yongdong Zhang , Zhendong Mao

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated inherent calibration capabilities, where predicted probabilities align well with correctness, despite prior findings that deep neural networks are often overconfident. Recent studies have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Abhinav Joshi , Areeb Ahmad , Ashutosh Modi

State-of-the-art semi-supervised learning (SSL) approaches rely on highly confident predictions to serve as pseudo-labels that guide the training on unlabeled samples. An inherent drawback of this strategy stems from the quality of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Shambhavi Mishra , Balamurali Murugesan , Ismail Ben Ayed , Marco Pedersoli , Jose Dolz

Large Language Models (LLMs) are commonly used in Question Answering (QA) settings, increasingly in the natural sciences if not science at large. Reliable Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is critical for the trustworthy uptake of generated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Philip Müller , Nicholas Popovič , Michael Färber , Peter Steinbach

In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

Self-detection for Large Language Models (LLMs) seeks to evaluate the trustworthiness of the LLM's output by leveraging its own capabilities, thereby alleviating the issue of output hallucination. However, existing self-detection approaches…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-30 Moxin Li , Wenjie Wang , Fuli Feng , Fengbin Zhu , Qifan Wang , Tat-Seng Chua

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as automated judges and synthetic labelers, especially in low-label settings. Yet these systems are stochastic and often overconfident, which makes deployment decisions difficult when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Maxim Khomiakov , Jes Frellsen

The advent of pre-trained language models (PLMs) has enabled significant performance gains in the field of natural language processing. However, recent studies have found PLMs to suffer from miscalibration, indicating a lack of accuracy in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Geetanjali Bihani , Julia Rayz