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Skillful streamflow forecasts can inform decisions in various areas of water policy and management. We integrate numerical weather prediction ensembles, distributed hydrological model and machine learning to generate ensemble streamflow…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Sanjib Sharma , Ganesh Raj Ghimire , Ridwan Siddique

During the last two years, tremendous progress in global data-driven weather models trained on numerical weather prediction (NWP) re-analysis data has been made. The most recent models trained on the ERA5 at 0.25{\deg} resolution…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-09-06 John Bjørnar Bremnes , Thomas N. Nipen , Ivar A. Seierstad

Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC, however, these forecasts are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-03 Ágnes Baran , Sebastian Lerch , Mehrez El Ayari , Sándor Baran

Historical observations of severe weather and simulated severe weather environments (i.e., features) from the Global Ensemble Forecast System v12 (GEFSv12) Reforecast Dataset (GEFS/R) are used in conjunction to train and test random forest…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-19 Aaron J. Hill , Russ S. Schumacher , Israel Jirak

Nowadays, weather forecasts are commonly generated by ensemble forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. However, such forecasts are usually miscalibrated and/or biased, thus require statistical…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-13 David Jobst

This paper improves wind power prediction via weather forecast-contextualized Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) models. Initially, only wind power data was fed to a generic LSTM, but this model performed poorly, with erratic and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-06 Maximilian Du

In this paper we quantify the performances of an automated weather forecast system implemented on the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) site at Mt. Graham (Arizona) in forecasting the main atmospheric parameters close to the ground. The…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-01-26 Alessio Turchi , Elena Masciadri , Luca Fini

The evolution of the weather can be described by deterministic numerical weather forecasting models. Multiple runs of these models with different initial conditions and/or model physics result in forecast ensembles which are used for…

Applications · Statistics 2015-07-21 Sándor Baran , András Horányi , Dóra Nemoda

Weather forecasting is mostly based on the outputs of deterministic numerical weather forecasting models. Multiple runs of these models with different initial conditions result in forecast ensembles which is are used for estimating the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-07-21 Sándor Baran , András Horányi , Dóra Nemoda

Ensemble weather forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models typically show systematic errors and require post-processing to obtain reliable forecasts. Accurately modeling multivariate dependencies is crucial in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-02 Jieyu Chen , Tim Janke , Florian Steinke , Sebastian Lerch

Accurate short-term forecasting of air temperature and relative humidity is critical for urban management, especially in topographically complex cities such as Chongqing, China. This study compares seven machine learning models: eXtreme…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Jiaqi Dong

Machine learning (ML) offers a computationally efficient approach for generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate projections, but deterministic ML methods often smooth fine-scale structures and underestimate extremes. While…

Due to computational constraints, running global climate models (GCMs) for many years requires a lower spatial grid resolution (${\gtrsim}50$ km) than is optimal for accurately resolving important physical processes. Such processes are…

Issuing timely severe weather warnings helps mitigate potentially disastrous consequences. Recent advancements in Neural Weather Models (NWMs) offer a computationally inexpensive and fast approach for forecasting atmospheric environments on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-08-22 Antoine Leclerc , Erwan Koch , Monika Feldmann , Daniele Nerini , Tom Beucler

Climate models lack the necessary resolution for urban climate studies, requiring computationally intensive processes to estimate high resolution air temperatures. In contrast, Data-driven approaches offer faster and more accurate air…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-05 Fatemeh Chajaei , Hossein Bagheri

Climate system models (CSMs), through integrating cross-sphere interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere, have emerged as pivotal tools for deciphering climate dynamics and improving forecasting capabilities. Recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Chenguang Zhou , Lei Chen , Xiaohui Zhong , Bo Lu , Hao Li , Libo Wu , Jie Wu , Jiahui Hu , Zesheng Dou , Pang-Chi Hsu , Xiaoye Zhang

Meteorological ensembles are a collection of scenarios for future weather delivered by a meteorological center. Such ensembles form the main source of valuable information for probabilistic forecasting which aims at producing a predictive…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-07 Marie Courbariaux , Pierre Barbillon , Luc Perreault , Éric Parent

Prediction of various weather quantities is mostly based on deterministic numerical weather forecasting models. Multiple runs of these models with different initial conditions result ensembles of forecasts which are applied for estimating…

Applications · Statistics 2014-04-09 Sándor Baran , Dóra Nemoda , András Horányi

We propose a machine-learning-based methodology for in-situ weather forecast postprocessing that is both spatially coherent and multivariate. Compared to previous work, our Flow MAtching Postprocessing (FMAP) better represents the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-28 David Landry , Claire Monteleoni , Anastase Charantonis

Multiple studies have now demonstrated that machine learning (ML) can give improved skill for predicting or simulating fairly typical weather events, for tasks such as short-term and seasonal weather forecasting, downscaling simulations to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-30 Peter AG Watson