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We propose a score test for dependence predictability in conditional copulas that is robust to temporal instabilities. Our semiparametric procedure accommodates flexible dynamics in the marginal processes and remains agnostic about the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-03 Alexander Mayer , Tatsushi Oka , Dominik Wied

Testing the equality of two conditional distributions is crucial in various modern applications, including transfer learning and causal inference. Despite its importance, this fundamental problem has received surprisingly little attention…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Jian Yan , Zhuoxi Li , Xianyang Zhang

In this article, we consider the problem of simultaneous testing of hypotheses when the individual test statistics are not necessarily independent. Specifically, we consider the problem of simultaneous testing of point null hypotheses…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-17 Prasenjit Ghosh , Arijit Chakrabarti

We study the problem of nonparametric dependence detection. Many existing methods may suffer severe power loss due to non-uniform consistency, which we illustrate with a paradox. To avoid such power loss, we approach the nonparametric test…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-14 Kai Zhang

Conditional independence (CI) testing is frequently used in data analysis and machine learning for various scientific fields and it forms the basis of constraint-based causal discovery. Oftentimes, CI testing relies on strong, rather…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-21 Wiebke Günther , Urmi Ninad , jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

In many epidemiological contexts, disease occurrences and their rates are naturally modelled by counting processes and their intensities, allowing an analysis based on martingale methods. These methods lend themselves to extensions of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Larry Goldstein , Bryan Langholz

Measures of local and global spatial association are key tools for exploratory spatial data analysis. Many such measures exist including Moran's $I$, Geary's $C$, and the Getis-Ord $G$ and $G^*$ statistics. A parametric approach to testing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-30 Adam B Kashlak , Weicong Yuan

Many tools exist to detect dependence between random variables, a core question across a wide range of machine learning, statistical, and scientific endeavors. Although several statistical tests guarantee eventual detection of any…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-23 Nathaniel Xu , Feng Liu , Danica J. Sutherland

We study the problem of testing the null hypothesis that X and Y are conditionally independent given Z, where each of X, Y and Z may be functional random variables. This generalises testing the significance of X in a regression model of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-27 Anton Rask Lundborg , Rajen D. Shah , Jonas Peters

Two-sample and independence tests with the kernel-based MMD and HSIC have shown remarkable results on i.i.d. data and stationary random processes. However, these statistics are not directly applicable to non-stationary random processes, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-05 Felix Laumann , Julius von Kügelgen , Mauricio Barahona

We consider the problem of estimating a particular type of linear non-Gaussian model. Without resorting to the overcomplete Independent Component Analysis (ICA), we show that under some mild assumptions, the model is uniquely identified by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-29 Wei Chen , Kun Zhang , Ruichu Cai , Biwei Huang , Joseph Ramsey , Zhifeng Hao , Clark Glymour

We propose an independence test for random variables valued into metric spaces by using a test statistic obtained from appropriately centering and rescaling the squared Hilbert-Schmidt norm of the usual empirical estimator of normalized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-11 Terence Kevin Manfoumbi Djonguet , Guy Martial Nkiet

Inference after model selection presents computational challenges when dealing with intractable conditional distributions. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a common method for sampling from these distributions, but its slow convergence…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-22 Sifan Liu

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang

We describe a data-efficient, kernel-based approach to statistical testing of conditional independence. A major challenge of conditional independence testing is to obtain the correct test level (the specified upper bound on the rate of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Roman Pogodin , Antonin Schrab , Yazhe Li , Danica J. Sutherland , Arthur Gretton

We apply the concept of distance covariance for testing independence of two long-range dependent time series. As test statistic we propose a linear combination of empirical distance cross-covariances. We derive the asymptotic distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Annika Betken , Herold Dehling

High-dimensional covariates often admit linear factor structure. To effectively screen correlated covariates in high-dimension, we propose a conditional variable screening test based on non-parametric regression using neural networks due to…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-21 Jianqing Fan , Weining Wang , Yue Zhao

Nonparametric mixture models based on the Pitman-Yor process represent a flexible tool for density estimation and clustering. Natural generalization of the popular class of Dirichlet process mixture models, they allow for more robust…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-26 Antonio Canale , Riccardo Corradin , Bernardo Nipoti

We leverage recent advances in heavy-tail approximations for global hypothesis testing with dependent studies to construct approximate confidence regions without modeling or estimating their dependence structures. A non-rejection region is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Tianle Liu , Xiao-Li Meng , Natesh S. Pillai

Reliable measurement of dependence between variables is essential in many applications of statistics and machine learning. Current approaches for dependence estimation, especially density-based approaches, lack in precision, robustness…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-04 Rishabh Singh , Jose C. Principe