Related papers: Evaluating Structured Strategy Backtests: Peer Ben…
Using state-level opioid overdose mortality data from 1999-2016, we simulated four time-varying treatment scenarios, which correspond to real-world policy dynamics (ramp up, ramp down, temporary and inconsistent). We then evaluated seven…
Targeted sentiment analysis is the task of jointly predicting target entities and their associated sentiment information. Existing research efforts mostly regard this joint task as a sequence labeling problem, building models that can…
Reinforcement learning methods often produce brittle policies -- policies that perform well during training, but generalize poorly beyond their direct training experience, thus becoming unstable under small disturbances. To address this…
The Efficient Market Hypothesis has been a staple of economics research for decades. In particular, weak-form market efficiency -- the notion that past prices cannot predict future performance -- is strongly supported by econometric…
In two-sided matching markets, ensuring both stability and strategy-proofness poses a significant challenge; it is impossible when agents' preferences are unrestricted. But what if agents' preferences have specific restricted structures?…
In recent times we hear increasingly often about cyber attacks on various commercial and strategic sites that manage to escape any defense. In this article, we model such attacks on networks via stochastic processes and predict the time of…
Over two decades, we and other research groups have found that ethnographic and social analyses of work settings can provide insights useful to the process of system analysis and design. Despite this, ethnographic and social analyses have…
We present a sound and complete method for the verification of qualitative liveness properties of replicated systems under stochastic scheduling. These are systems consisting of a finite-state program, executed by an unknown number of…
As demonstrated during the recent financial crisis, regulators require additional analytical tools to assess systemic risk in the financial sector. This paper describes one such tool; namely a novel market modeling and analysis capability.…
Biologically-inspired AI agent frameworks claim reliability benefits through structural guarantees adapted from gene regulatory networks, immune systems, and metabolic control. These claims are rarely tested empirically against simpler…
Tournament-based compensation schemes with forced distributions represent a widely adopted class of relative performance evaluation mechanisms in technology and corporate environments. These systems mandate within-team ranking and fixed…
We consider the dynamics of player's strategies in repeated market games, where the selection of strategies is determined by a learning model. Prior theoretical analysis and experimental data show that after large number of plays the…
Simulating how organized groups (e.g., corporations) make decisions (e.g., responding to a competitor's move) is essential for understanding real-world dynamics and could benefit relevant applications (e.g., market prediction). In this…
While early empirical evidence has supported the case for learned index structures as having favourable average-case performance, little is known about their worst-case performance. By contrast, classical structures are known to achieve…
Polling systems have been widely studied, however most of these studies focus on polling systems with renewal processes for arrivals and random variables for service times. There is a need driven by practical applications to study polling…
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of performance trade offs between implementation choices for transaction runtime systems on persistent memory. We compare three implementations of transaction runtimes: undo logging, redo…
Decision markets are mechanisms for selecting one among a set of actions based on forecasts about their consequences. Decision markets that are based on scoring rules have been proven to offer incentive compatibility analogous to properly…
In a sequential decision-making problem, off-policy evaluation estimates the expected cumulative reward of a target policy using logged trajectory data generated from a different behavior policy, without execution of the target policy.…
We present a nonparametric statistical test for determining whether an agent is following a given mixed strategy in a repeated strategic-form game given samples of the agent's play. This involves two components: determining whether the…
This article explores dynamic factor allocation by analyzing the cyclical performance of factors through regime analysis. The authors focus on a U.S. equity investment universe comprising seven long-only indices representing the market and…