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Related papers: IDOBE: Infectious Disease Outbreak forecasting Ben…

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The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-01-15 Marianna Karapitta , Andreas Kasis , Charithea Stylianides , Kleanthis Malialis , Panayiotis Kolios

Early outbreak data analysis is critical for informing about their potential impact and interventions. However, data obtained early in outbreaks are often sensitive and subject to strict privacy restrictions. Thus, federated analysis, which…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-27 Simon Busch-Moreno , Moritz U. G. Kraemer

Predicting the evolution of diseases is challenging, especially when the data availability is scarce and incomplete. The most popular tools for modelling and predicting infectious disease epidemics are compartmental models. They stratify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Esha Saha , Lam Si Tung Ho , Giang Tran

Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-02-17 Manuel Mai , Kun Wang , Greg Huber , Michael Kirby , Mark D. Shattuck , Corey S. O'Hern

Infectious disease surveillance is of great importance for the prevention of major outbreaks. Syndromic surveillance aims at developing algorithms which can detect outbreaks as early as possible by monitoring data sources which allow to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-01 Moritz Kulessa , Eneldo Loza Mencía , Johannes Fürnkranz

Insect outbreaks are biotic disturbances in forests and agroecosystems that cause economic and ecological damage. This phenomenon depends on a variety of biological and physical factors. The complexity and practical importance of the issue…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-09-07 Gabriel R. Palma , Wesley A. C. Godoy , Eduardo Engel , Douglas Lau , Edgar Galvan , Oliver Mason , Charles Markham , Rafael A. Moral

Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-12-01 B. K. M. Case , Jean-Gabriel Young , Laurent Hébert-Dufresne

Early outbreak detection is a key aspect in the containment of infectious diseases, as it enables the identification and isolation of infected individuals before the disease can spread to a larger population. Instead of detecting unexpected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Michael Rapp , Moritz Kulessa , Eneldo Loza Mencía , Johannes Fürnkranz

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a fast emerging method for passively monitoring diseases in a population. By measuring the concentrations of pathogenic materials in wastewater, WBE negates demographic biases in clinical testing and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-06-18 Anthony J Wood , Jessica Enright , Aeron R Sanchez , Ewan Colman , Rowland R Kao

Infectious diseases, either emerging or long-lasting, place numerous people at risk and bring heavy public health burdens worldwide. In the process against infectious diseases, predicting the epidemic risk by modeling the disease…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Mutong Liu , Yang Liu , Jiming Liu

Epidemiologists aiming to model the dynamics of global events face a significant challenge in identifying the factors linked with anomalies such as disease outbreaks. In this paper, we present a novel method for identifying the most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-20 Aboli Marathe , Saloni Parekh , Harsh Sakhrani

Understanding the timing of the peak of a disease outbreak forms an important part of epidemic forecasting. In many cases, such information is essential for planning increased hospital bed demand and for designing of public health…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-27 Jacob Curran-Sebastian , Lorenzo Pellis , Ian Hall , Thomas House

Real-time forecasting of disease outbreaks requires standardized outputs generated in a timely manner. Development of pipelines to automate infectious disease forecasts can ensure that parameterization and software dependencies are common…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-11 VP Nagraj , Chris Hulme-Lowe , Shakeel Jessa , Stephen D. Turner

The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…

Applications · Statistics 2018-01-30 Tom Britton

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-12 Lauren J Beesley , Dave Osthus , Sara Y Del Valle

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-21 Alexander Rodríguez , Harshavardhan Kamarthi , Pulak Agarwal , Javen Ho , Mira Patel , Suchet Sapre , B. Aditya Prakash

Recent years have seen increasing efforts to forecast infectious disease burdens, with a primary goal being to help public health workers make informed policy decisions. However, there has only been limited discussion of how predominant…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-06 Aaron Gerding , Nicholas G. Reich , Benjamin Rogers , Evan L. Ray

Epidemic is a rapid and wide spread of infectious disease threatening many lives and economy damages. It is important to fore-tell the epidemic lifetime so to decide on timely and remedic actions. These measures include closing borders,…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant effort has gone into developing ML-driven epidemic forecasting techniques. However, benchmarks do not exist to claim if a new AI/ML technique is better than the existing ones. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-08 Ajitesh Srivastava , Tianjian Xu , Viktor K. Prasanna

Bayesian inference methods are useful in infectious diseases modeling due to their capability to propagate uncertainty, manage sparse data, incorporate latent structures, and address high-dimensional parameter spaces. However, parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Xiahui Li , Fergus Chadwick , Ben Swallow