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Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Conformal prediction is a method of producing prediction sets that can be applied on top of a wide range of prediction algorithms. The method has a guaranteed coverage probability under the standard IID assumption regardless of whether the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-04-09 Evgeny Burnaev , Vladimir Vovk

We observe a $n$-sample, the distribution of which is assumed to belong, or at least to be close enough, to a given mixture model. We propose an estimator of this distribution that belongs to our model and possesses some robustness…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Alexandre Lecestre

Decision-making under uncertainty is hugely important for any decisions sensitive to perturbations in observed data. One method of incorporating uncertainty into making optimal decisions is through robust optimization, which minimizes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-06 Chancellor Johnstone , Bruce Cox

Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Yaniv Romano , Evan Patterson , Emmanuel J. Candès

In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Matteo Fontana , Gianluca Zeni , Simone Vantini

Robust estimators, like the median of a point set, are important for data analysis in the presence of outliers. We study robust estimators for locationally uncertain points with discrete distributions. That is, each point in a data set has…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2018-03-14 Kevin Buchin , Jeff M. Phillips , Pingfan Tang

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Ge Yan , Yaniv Romano , Tsui-Wei Weng

Quantifying uncertainty in automatically generated text is important for letting humans check potential hallucinations and making systems more reliable. Conformal prediction is an attractive framework to provide predictions imbued with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Dennis Ulmer , Chrysoula Zerva , André F. T. Martins

Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Minxing Zheng , Shixiang Zhu

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Christos Louizos

We propose a new method called localized conformal prediction, where we can perform conformal inference using only a local region around a new test sample to construct its confidence interval. Localized conformal inference is a natural…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-08 Leying Guan

Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Wenbin Zhou , Shixiang Zhu

Conformal prediction is a model-free machine learning method for constructing prediction regions at a guaranteed coverage probability level. However, a data scientist often faces three challenges in practice: (i) the determination of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Liang Hong , Noura Raydan Nasreddine

In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them. We study the problem of constructing a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Yuqi Yang , Ying Jin

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

Conformal prediction has received tremendous attention in recent years and has offered new solutions to problems in missing data and causal inference; yet these advances have not leveraged modern semiparametric efficiency theory for more…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-14 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen