Related papers: Contagion or Macroeconomic Fluctuations? Identifia…
We investigate opinion spreading by a threshold model in a situation where the influence of people is heterogeneously distributed. We focus on the response of the average opinion as a function between the trend between out-degree (number of…
We consider SIS contagion processes over networks where, a classical assumption is that individuals' decisions to adopt a contagion are based on their immediate neighbors. However, recent literature shows that some attributes are more…
Prior social contagion models consider the spread of either one contagion at a time on interdependent networks or multiple contagions on single layer networks or under assumptions of competition. We propose a new threshold model for the…
Complex networks represent the natural backbone to study epidemic processes in populations of interacting individuals. Such a modeling framework, however, is naturally limited to pairwise interactions, making it less suitable to properly…
This paper develops a two-dimensional structural framework for valuing credit default swaps and corporate bonds in the presence of default contagion. Modelling the values of related firms as correlated geometric Brownian motions with…
Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence for the emergence of macroscopic epidemic type behavior, in the form of Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) or Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) processes in urban traffic congestion from…
We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters---governing within-household…
Contagion processes have been proven to fundamentally depend on the structural properties of the interaction networks conveying them. Many real networked systems are characterized by clustered substructures representing either collections…
We present a differential equations model in which contagious disease transmission is affected by contagious fear of the disease and contagious fear of the control, in this case vaccine. The three contagions are coupled. The two fears…
Poor economies not only produce less; they typically produce things that involve fewer inputs and fewer intermediate steps. Yet the supply chains of poor countries face more frequent disruptions---delivery failures, faulty parts, delays,…
Many spreading processes in our real-life can be considered as a complex contagion, and the linear threshold (LT) model is often applied as a very representative model for this mechanism. Despite its intensive usage, the LT model suffers…
The question that how cultural variation emerges has drawn lots of interest in sociological inquiry. Sociologists predominantly study such variation through the lens of social contagion, which mostly attributes cultural variation to the…
Object counting models suffer when deployed across domains with differing density variety, since density shifts are inherently task-relevant and violate standard domain adaptation assumptions. To address this, we propose a theoretical…
We consider a large collection of dynamically interacting components defined on a weighted directed graph determining the impact of default of one component to another one. We prove a law of large numbers for the empirical measure capturing…
Many network contagion processes are inherently multiplex in nature, yet are often reduced to processes on uniplex networks in analytic practice. We therefore examine how data modeling choices can affect the predictions of contagion…
The spread of new products in a networked population is often modeled as an epidemic. However, in the case of `complex' contagion, these models {do not capture nuanced, dynamic social reinforcement effects in adoption behavior}. In this…
Data assimilation, consisting in the combination of a dynamical model with a set of noisy and incomplete observations in order to infer the state of a system over time, involves uncertainty in most settings. Building upon an existing…
The threshold model has been widely adopted as a classic model for studying contagion processes on social networks. We consider asymmetric individual interactions in social networks and introduce a persuasion mechanism into the threshold…
The dynamics of adaptation is difficult to predict because it is highly stochastic even in large populations. The uncertainty emerges from number fluctuations, called genetic drift, arising in the small number of particularly fit…
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…