Related papers: Contagion or Macroeconomic Fluctuations? Identifia…
I show the equivalence between a model of financial contagion and the threshold model of global cascades proposed by Watts (2002). The model financial network comprises banks that hold risky external assets as well as interbank assets. It…
As impressively shown by the financial crisis in 2007/08, contagion effects in financial networks harbor a great threat for the stability of the entire system. Without sufficient capital requirements for banks and other financial…
Information and individual activities often spread globally through the network of social ties. While social contagion phenomena have been extensively studied within the framework of threshold models, it is common to make an assumption that…
The modeling of the probability of joint default or total number of defaults among the firms is one of the crucial problems to mitigate the credit risk since the default correlations significantly affect the portfolio loss distribution and…
A key ingredient in social contagion dynamics is reinforcement, as adopting a certain social behavior requires verification of its credibility and legitimacy. Memory of non-redundant information plays an important role in reinforcement,…
Learning latent expression themes that best express complex patterns in a sample is a central problem in data mining and scientific research. For example, in computational biology we seek a set of salient gene expression themes that explain…
Models of contagion arise broadly both in the biological and social sciences, with applications ranging from the transmission of infectious diseases to the diffusion of innovations and the spread of cultural fads. In this Letter, we…
Contagion, broadly construed, refers to anything that can spread infectiously from peer to peer. Examples include communicable diseases, rumors, misinformation, ideas, innovations, bank failures, and electrical blackouts. Sometimes, as in…
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
We address the joint detection-and-attribution problem in cross-border financial contagion through a two-stage framework. The first stage applies wavelet-quantile transfer entropy across time-scales and lower, median, and upper-tail…
We study large deviations and rare default clustering events in a dynamic large heterogeneous portfolio of interconnected components. Defaults come as Poisson events and the default intensities of the different components in the system…
Current epidemics in the biological and social domains are challenging the standard assumptions of mathematical contagion models. Chief among them are the complex patterns of transmission caused by heterogeneous group sizes and infection…
We introduce a general framework for models of cascade and contagion processes on networks, to identify their commonalities and differences. In particular, models of social and financial cascades, as well as the fiber bundle model, the…
Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations…
Research on social contagion dynamics has not yet including a theoretical analysis of the ubiquitous local trend imitation (LTI) characteristic. We propose a social contagion model with a tent-like adoption probability distribution to…
Models of threshold driven contagion explain the cascading spread of information, behavior, systemic risk, and epidemics on social, financial and biological networks. At odds with empirical observation, these models predict that…
Propagation of balance-sheet or cash-flow insolvency across financial institutions may be modeled as a cascade process on a network representing their mutual exposures. We derive rigorous asymptotic results for the magnitude of contagion in…
In structural credit risk models, default events and the ensuing losses are both derived from the asset values at maturity. Hence it is of utmost importance to choose a distribution for these asset values which is in accordance with…
The stability of a complex financial system may be assessed by measuring risk contagion between various financial institutions with relatively high exposure. We consider a financial network model using a bipartite graph of financial…