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This work addresses the challenge of providing consistent explanations for predictive models in the presence of model indeterminacy, which arises due to the existence of multiple (nearly) equally well-performing models for a given dataset…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Dan Ley , Leonard Tang , Matthew Nazari , Hongjin Lin , Suraj Srinivas , Himabindu Lakkaraju

Estimating the distribution of outcomes under counterfactual policies is critical for decision-making in domains such as recommendation, advertising, and healthcare. We propose and analyze a novel framework-Counterfactual Policy Mean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-29 Houssam Zenati , Bariscan Bozkurt , Arthur Gretton

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Jake C. Snell , Thomas L. Griffiths

Counterfactuals, serving as one of the emerging type of model interpretations, have recently received attention from both researchers and practitioners. Counterfactual explanations formalize the exploration of ``what-if'' scenarios, and are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 Fan Yang , Sahan Suresh Alva , Jiahao Chen , Xia Hu

We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables. Our approach builds on conformal prediction, a powerful framework to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-10 Shai Feldman , Yaniv Romano

Recent work has raised concerns on the risk of spurious correlations and unintended biases in statistical machine learning models that threaten model robustness and fairness. In this paper, we propose a simple and intuitive regularization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-05 Zhao Wang , Kai Shu , Aron Culotta

Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Density regression models allow a comprehensive understanding of data by modeling the complete conditional probability distribution. While flexible estimation approaches such as normalizing flows (NF) work particularly well in multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-13 Marcel Arpogaus , Thomas Kneib , Thomas Nagler , David Rügamer

Penalized likelihood and quasi-likelihood methods dominate inference in high-dimensional linear mixed-effects models. Sampling-based Bayesian inference is less explored due to the computational bottlenecks introduced by the random effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Sreya Sarkar , Kshitij Khare , Sanvesh Srivastava

In this work, we demonstrate how to reliably estimate epistemic uncertainty while maintaining the flexibility needed to capture complicated aleatoric distributions. To this end, we propose an ensemble of Normalizing Flows (NF), which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Lucas Berry , David Meger

Accurate estimation of counterfactual outcomes in high-dimensional data is crucial for decision-making and understanding causal relationships and intervention outcomes in various domains, including healthcare, economics, and social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Jiageng Zhu , Hanchen Xie , Jiazhi Li , Wael Abd-Almageed

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has emerged as a critical area of research aimed at enhancing the transparency and interpretability of AI systems. Counterfactual Explanations (CFEs) offer valuable insights into the decision-making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Orfeas Menis Mastromichalakis , Jason Liartis , Giorgos Stamou

Visual counterfactual explanation (CF) methods modify image concepts, e.g, shape, to change a prediction to a predefined outcome while closely resembling the original query image. Unlike self-explainable models (SEMs) and heatmap…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-20 Anselm Haselhoff , Kevin Trelenberg , Fabian Küppers , Jonas Schneider

Modern neural networks achieve strong performance but remain difficult to interpret in high-dimensional visual domains. Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) provide a principled approach to interpreting black-box predictions by identifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Ahmed Zeid , Sidney Bender

Model explainability is crucial for human users to be able to interpret how a proposed classifier assigns labels to data based on its feature values. We study generalized linear models constructed using sets of feature value rules, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-06 Sanjeeb Dash , Soumyadip Ghosh , Joao Goncalves , Mark S. Squillante

In high-stake domains such as healthcare and hiring, the role of machine learning (ML) in decision-making raises significant fairness concerns. This work focuses on Counterfactual Fairness (CF), which posits that an ML model's outcome on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-23 Zeyu Zhou , Tianci Liu , Ruqi Bai , Jing Gao , Murat Kocaoglu , David I. Inouye

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

The field of generating recommendations within the framework of causal inference has seen a recent surge, with recommendations being likened to treatments. This approach enhances insights into the influence of recommendations on user…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Guanglin Zhou , Chengkai Huang , Xiaocong Chen , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu , Lina Yao

We study counterfactual classification as a new tool for decision-making under hypothetical (contrary to fact) scenarios. We propose a doubly-robust nonparametric estimator for a general counterfactual classifier, where we can incorporate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Kwangho Kim , Edward H. Kennedy , José R. Zubizarreta

This paper addresses the challenge of generating Counterfactual Explanations (CEs), involving the identification and modification of the fewest necessary features to alter a classifier's prediction for a given image. Our proposed method,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Guillaume Jeanneret , Loïc Simon , Frédéric Jurie