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Large Language Models (LLMs) have become increasingly pervasive, finding applications across many industries and disciplines. Ensuring the trustworthiness of LLM outputs is paramount, where Uncertainty Estimation (UE) plays a key role. In…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Kevin Wang , Subre Abdoul Moktar , Jia Li , Kangshuo Li , Feng Chen

Uncertainty estimation (UE) aims to detect hallucinated outputs of large language models (LLMs) to improve their reliability. However, UE metrics often exhibit unstable performance across configurations, which significantly limits their…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Ponhvoan Srey , Quang Minh Nguyen , Xiaobao Wu , Anh Tuan Luu

Large Language Models (LLMs) are valued for their strong performance across various tasks, but they also produce inaccurate or misleading outputs. Uncertainty Estimation (UE) quantifies the model's confidence and helps users assess response…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Heydar Soudani , Evangelos Kanoulas , Faegheh Hasibi

To facilitate robust and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs), it is essential to quantify the reliability of their generations through uncertainty estimation. While recent efforts have made significant advancements by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Rui Li , Jing Long , Muge Qi , Heming Xia , Lei Sha , Peiyi Wang , Zhifang Sui

The correct way to quantify predictive uncertainty in neural networks remains a topic of active discussion. In particular, it is unclear whether the state-of-the art entropy decomposition leads to a meaningful representation of model, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Lisa Wimmer , Bernd Bischl , Ludwig Bothmann

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Mingda Li , Xinyu Li , Weinan Zhang , Longxuan Ma

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation (NLG) tasks remains an open challenge, exacerbated by the closed-source nature of the latest large language models (LLMs). This study investigates applying conformal prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Lu Cheng , Yue Zhang , Qingni Wang , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu , Hengtao Shen , Xiaofeng Zhu

In many high-risk machine learning applications it is essential for a model to indicate when it is uncertain about a prediction. While large language models (LLMs) can reach and even surpass human-level accuracy on a variety of benchmarks,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Evan Becker , Stefano Soatto

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in safety-critical applications such as medical image segmentation. Total uncertainty is typically decomposed into data-related aleatoric uncertainty (AU) and model-related epistemic uncertainty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Jakob Lønborg Christensen , Vedrana Andersen Dahl , Morten Rieger Hannemose , Anders Bjorholm Dahl , Christian F. Baumgartner

Large language models (LLMs) often behave inconsistently across inputs, indicating uncertainty and motivating the need for its quantification in high-stakes settings. Prior work on calibration and uncertainty quantification often focuses on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Maya Kruse , Majid Afshar , Saksham Khatwani , Anoop Mayampurath , Guanhua Chen , Yanjun Gao

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise for natural language generation in healthcare, but risk hallucinating factually incorrect information. Deploying LLMs for medical question answering necessitates reliable uncertainty estimation (UE)…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-12 Jiaxin Wu , Yizhou Yu , Hong-Yu Zhou

Large language models are increasingly relied upon as sources of information, but their propensity for generating false or misleading statements with high confidence poses risks for users and society. In this paper, we confront the critical…

We propose Sensitivity-Uncertainty Alignment (SUA), a framework for analyzing failures of large language models under adversarial and ambiguous inputs. We argue that adversarial sensitivity and ambiguity reflect a common issue: misalignment…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Prakul Sunil Hiremath , Harshit R. Hiremath

Large language models (LLMs) that do not give consistent answers across contexts are problematic when used for tasks with expectations of consistency, e.g., question-answering, explanations, etc. Our work presents an evaluation benchmark…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-23 Henning Bartsch , Ole Jorgensen , Domenic Rosati , Jason Hoelscher-Obermaier , Jacob Pfau

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making, enabling their adoption in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation. However, their reliability is a major concern, as they often…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Xiaoou Liu , Tiejin Chen , Longchao Da , Chacha Chen , Zhen Lin , Hua Wei

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in clinical settings, where sensitivity to linguistic uncertainty can influence diagnostic interpretation and decision-making. Yet little is known about where such epistemic cues are…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Srivarshinee Sridhar , Raghav Kaushik Ravi , Kripabandhu Ghosh

This study investigates uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs) for medical applications, emphasizing both technical innovations and philosophical implications. As LLMs become integral to clinical decision-making,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Zahra Atf , Seyed Amir Ahmad Safavi-Naini , Peter R. Lewis , Aref Mahjoubfar , Nariman Naderi , Thomas R. Savage , Ali Soroush

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Yasin Abbasi Yadkori , Ilja Kuzborskij , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant advances in text generation but often lack the reliability needed for autonomous deployment in high-stakes domains like healthcare, law, and finance. Existing approaches rely on external…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Ninad Naik

Estimating the confidence of large language model (LLM) outputs is essential for real-world applications requiring high user trust. Black-box uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods, relying solely on model API access, have gained…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Quan Xiao , Debarun Bhattacharjya , Balaji Ganesan , Radu Marinescu , Katsiaryna Mirylenka , Nhan H Pham , Michael Glass , Junkyu Lee
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