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Large language models (LLMs) are prone to generating factually incorrect outputs. Recent work has applied conformal prediction to provide uncertainty estimates and statistical guarantees for the factuality of LLM generations. However,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Aleksandr Rubashevskii , Dzianis Piatrashyn , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov

For Large Language Models (LLMs) to be reliable, they must learn robust knowledge that can be generally applied in diverse settings -- often unlike those seen during training. Yet, extensive research has shown that LLM performance can be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Patrick Haller , Mark Ibrahim , Polina Kirichenko , Levent Sagun , Samuel J. Bell

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Azza Jenane , Nassim Walha , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

LLM-as-a-judge has become a promising paradigm for using large language models (LLMs) to evaluate natural language generation (NLG), but the uncertainty of its evaluation remains underexplored. This lack of reliability may limit its…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Huanxin Sheng , Xinyi Liu , Hangfeng He , Jieyu Zhao , Jian Kang

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where the available context is incomplete or degraded. We argue that an LLM generating answers under incomplete context can be viewed as an implicit imputer, and evaluated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Stef van Buuren

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xing Han , Ziyang Tang , Joydeep Ghosh , Qiang Liu

Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Xiaofan Zhou , Lu Cheng

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to generating fluent but incorrect content, known as confabulation, which poses increasing risks in multi-turn or agentic applications where outputs may be reused as context. In this work, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Tianyi Zhou , Johanne Medina , Sanjay Chawla

Conformal inference provides a rigorous statistical framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, enabling well-calibrated prediction sets with precise coverage guarantees for any classification model. However, its reliance…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for reinforcement learning (RL) in high-stakes settings. We propose a unified conformal prediction framework for infinite-horizon policy evaluation that constructs distribution-free prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Feichen Gan , Youcun Lu , Yingying Zhang , Yukun Liu

Understanding what defines a good representation in large language models (LLMs) is fundamental to both theoretical understanding and practical applications. In this paper, we investigate the quality of intermediate representations in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-13 Oscar Skean , Md Rifat Arefin , Yann LeCun , Ravid Shwartz-Ziv

Large language models (LLMs) are often confidently wrong, making reliable uncertainty estimation (UE) essential. Output-based heuristics are cheap but brittle, while probing internal representations is effective yet high-dimensional and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Zvi N. Badash , Yonatan Belinkov , Moti Freiman

We study the feasibility of identifying epistemic uncertainty (reflecting a lack of knowledge), as opposed to aleatoric uncertainty (reflecting entropy in the underlying distribution), in the outputs of large language models (LLMs) over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Gustaf Ahdritz , Tian Qin , Nikhil Vyas , Boaz Barak , Benjamin L. Edelman

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes and operational settings, evaluation strategies based solely on aggregate accuracy are often insucient to characterize system reliability. This study proposes a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Hikmat Karimov , Rahid Zahid Alekberli

This study aims to address the pervasive challenge of quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) without logit-access. Conformal Prediction (CP), known for its model-agnostic and distribution-free features, is a desired…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Jiayuan Su , Jing Luo , Hongwei Wang , Lu Cheng

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Pengqi Liu , Zijun Yu , Mouloud Belbahri , Arthur Charpentier , Masoud Asgharian , Jesse C. Cresswell

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Julianna Piskorz , Katarzyna Kobalczyk , Mihaela van der Schaar

We develop new conformal inference methods for obtaining validity guarantees on the output of large language models (LLMs). Prior work in conformal language modeling identifies a subset of the text that satisfies a high-probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-01 John J. Cherian , Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel J. Candès

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently emerged as planners for language-instructed agents, generating sequences of actions to accomplish natural language tasks. However, their reliability remains a challenge, especially in long-horizon…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Jun Wang , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik , Yiannis Kantaros

Transformers have become a standard architecture in machine learning, demonstrating strong in-context learning (ICL) abilities that allow them to learn from the prompt at inference time. However, uncertainty quantification for ICL remains…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-23 Zhe Huang , Simone Rossi , Rui Yuan , Thomas Hannagan
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