Related papers: Capturing Aleatoric Uncertainty in Climate Models
Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool…
Time series models often deal with extreme events and anomalies, both prevalent in real-world datasets. Such models often need to provide careful probabilistic forecasting, which is vital in risk management for extreme events such as…
Climate change is a non-uniform phenomenon. This paper proposes a new quantitative methodology to characterize, measure, and test the existence of climate change heterogeneity. It consists of three steps. First, we introduce a new testable…
Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally…
Predicting future probable values of model parameters, is an essential pre-requisite for assessing model decision reliability in an uncertain environment. Scenario Analysis is a methodology for modelling uncertainty in water resources…
Global climate models aim to reproduce physical processes on a global scale and predict quantities such as temperature given some forcing inputs. We consider climate ensembles made of collections of such runs with different initial…
Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…
Large ensembles of climate projections are essential for characterizing uncertainty in future climate and extreme weather events, yet computational constraints of numerical climate models limit ensemble sizes to a small number of…
Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among many complex systems in science and engineering. The existence of a strange attractor in the turbulent…
The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…
Meaningful climate predictions must be accompanied by their corresponding range of uncertainty. Quantifying the uncertainties is non-trivial, and different methods have been suggested and used in the past. Here, we propose a method that…
How regional heterogeneity in social and cultural processes drive--and respond to--climate dynamics is little studied. Here we present a coupled social-climate model stratified across five world regions and parameterized with geophysical,…
Urban-induced microclimate variations, such as urban heat islands and air pollution, scale with city size, producing distinctive relations between average climate variables and city-scale quantities (e.g., total population). However, these…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their…
How will the climate system respond to anthropogenic forcings? One approach to this question relies on climate model projections. Current climate projections are considerably uncertain. Characterizing and, if possible, reducing this…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
Climate predictions are only meaningful if the associated uncertainty is reliably estimated. A standard practice for providing climate projections is to use an ensemble of projections. The ensemble mean serves as the projection while the…
Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…
Multiple hypotheses/models have been put forward regarding the cooling history of the Earth. The search for life beyond Earth has brought these models into a new light as they connect to one of the two energy sources life can tap. The…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…