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Electricity price forecasting supports decision-making in energy markets and asset operation. Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly adopted to explicitly quantify uncertainty, typically issued as quantile predictions or ensembles of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-22 Simon Hirsch , Florian Ziel

Building energy management (BEM) tasks require processing and learning from a variety of time-series data. Existing solutions rely on bespoke task- and data-specific models to perform these tasks, limiting their broader applicability.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Ozan Baris Mulayim , Pengrui Quan , Liying Han , Xiaomin Ouyang , Dezhi Hong , Mario Bergés , Mani Srivastava

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) plays a critical role in power system operation and market decision making. While existing review studies have provided valuable insights into forecasting horizons, market mechanisms, and evaluation…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-13 Runyao Yu , Derek W. Bunn , Julia Lin , Jochen Stiasny , Fabian Leimgruber , Tara Esterl , Yuchen Tao , Lianlian Qi , Yujie Chen , Wentao Wang , Jochen L. Cremer

Electricity load peak forecasting (ELPF), simultaneously predicting peak timing and intensity, is a prerequisite for effective grid scheduling and risk management. However, existing methods face three limitations. First, they adopt a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Wangzhi Yu , Peng Zhu , Qing Zhao , Yiwen Jiang , Dawei Cheng

As global energy systems transit to clean energy, accurate renewable generation and renewable demand forecasting is imperative for effective grid management. Foundation Models (FMs) can help improve forecasting of renewable generation and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-01 Md Meftahul Ferdaus , Tanmoy Dam , Md Rasel Sarkar , Moslem Uddin , Sreenatha G. Anavatti

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is key functionality in numerous fields, such as financial investment, weather services, and energy management. Although increasingly capable TSF methods occur, many of them require domain-specific data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Zhe Li , Xiangfei Qiu , Peng Chen , Yihang Wang , Hanyin Cheng , Yang Shu , Jilin Hu , Chenjuan Guo , Aoying Zhou , Christian S. Jensen , Bin Yang

Time series forecasting (TSF) is an essential branch of machine learning with various applications. Most methods for TSF focus on constructing different networks to extract better information and improve performance. However, practical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Yanru Sun , Zongxia Xie , Haoyu Xing , Hualong Yu , Qinghua Hu

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is vital for the effective and economic operation of power grids and energy markets. However, the non-linearity and non-stationarity of electricity demand as well as its dependency on various external…

This study investigates zero-shot forecasting capabilities of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) for macroeconomic indicators. We apply TSFMs to forecasting economic indicators under univariate conditions, bypassing the need for train…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Jittarin Jetwiriyanon , Teo Susnjak , Surangika Ranathunga

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) such as Lag-Llama, TimeGPT, Chronos, MOMENT, UniTS, and TimesFM have shown strong generalization and zero-shot capabilities for time series forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Dhruv D. Modi , Rong Pan

Time series forecasting is essential for operational intelligence in the hospitality industry, and particularly challenging in large-scale, distributed systems. This study evaluates the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-06 Issar Arab , Rodrigo Benitez

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have emerged as a promising approach for zero-shot financial forecasting, demonstrating strong transferability and data efficiency gains. However, their adoption in financial applications is hindered by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Arundeep Chinta , Lucas Vinh Tran , Jay Katukuri

The zero-shot capabilities of foundation models (FMs) for time series forecasting offer promising potentials in conformal prediction, as most of the available data can be allocated to calibration. This study compares the performance of Time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Sami Achour , Yassine Bouher , Duong Nguyen , Nicolas Chesneau

Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) is a key component in the extended tool-chain required for efficient management of smart energy grids. Neural networks are widely considered to achieve improved prediction performances, supporting highly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-12 Alessandro Brusaferri , Matteo Matteucci , Stefano Spinelli , Andrea Vitali

Time series foundational models (TSFM) have gained prominence in time series forecasting, promising state-of-the-art performance across various applications. However, their application in anomaly detection and prediction remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Chathurangi Shyalika , Harleen Kaur Bagga , Ahan Bhatt , Renjith Prasad , Alaa Al Ghazo , Amit Sheth

Accurately forecasting electricity price volatility is crucial for effective risk management and decision-making. Traditional forecasting models often fall short in capturing the complex, non-linear dynamics of electricity markets,…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Haochen Xue , Chenghao Liu , Chong Zhang , Yuxuan Chen , Angxiao Zong , Zhaodong Wu , Yulong Li , Jiayi Liu , Kaiyu Liang , Zhixiang Lu , Ruobing Li , Jionglong Su

Financial time series forecasting is central to trading, portfolio optimization, and risk management, yet it remains challenging due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data. Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs),…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-25 Eghbal Rahimikia , Hao Ni , Weiguan Wang

Short-term load prediction (STLP) is critical for modern power distribution system operations, particularly as demand and generation uncertainties grow with the integration of low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-18 Nan Lin , Dong Yun , Weijie Xia , Peter Palensky , Pedro P. Vergara

The wide spread of new energy resources, smart devices, and demand side management strategies has motivated several analytics operations, from infrastructure load modeling to user behavior profiling. Energy Demand Forecasting (EDF) of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Andreas Tritsarolis , Gil Sampaio , Nikos Pelekis , Yannis Theodoridis

Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) achieve strong forecast accuracy, yet accuracy alone does not determine practical value. The form of a forecast -- point, quantile, parametric, or trajectory ensemble -- fundamentally constrains which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Alvaro Perez-Diaz , James C. Loach , Danielle E. Toutoungi , Lee Middleton