Related papers: Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Marko…
Anomalies in economic and financial data -- often linked to rare yet impactful events -- are of theoretical interest, but can also severely distort inference. Although outlier-robust methodologies can be used, many researchers prefer…
Online auction, shopping, electronic billing etc. all such types of application involves problems of fraudulent transactions. Online fraud occurrence and its detection is one of the challenging fields for web development and online phantom…
The infinite restricted Boltzmann machine (iRBM) is an extension of the classic RBM. It enjoys a good property of automatically deciding the size of the hidden layer according to specific training data. With sufficient training, the iRBM…
We show how models for prediction with expert advice can be defined concisely and clearly using hidden Markov models (HMMs); standard HMM algorithms can then be used to efficiently calculate, among other things, how the expert predictions…
Recent developments on deep learning established some theoretical properties of deep neural networks estimators. However, most of the existing works on this topic are restricted to bounded loss functions or (sub)-Gaussian or bounded input.…
A new robust and statistically efficient estimator for ARMA models called the bounded influence propagation (BIP) {\tau}-estimator is proposed. The estimator incorporates an auxiliary model, which prevents the propagation of outliers.…
The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) is a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the classical Hidden Markov Model for learning from (spatio-)temporal data. A sticky HDP-HMM has been proposed to strengthen…
Hidden Markov Models (HMM) have been used for several years in many time series analysis or pattern recognitions tasks. HMM are often trained by means of the Baum-Welch algorithm which can be seen as a special variant of an expectation…
Outlier detection identifies data points that deviate significantly from expected patterns, revealing anomalies that may require special attention. Incorporating online learning further improves accuracy by continuously updating the model…
Outlier feature matches and loop-closures that survived front-end data association can lead to catastrophic failures in the back-end optimization of large-scale point cloud based 3D reconstruction. To alleviate this problem, we propose a…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are flexible tools for clustering dependent data coming from unknown populations, allowing nonparametric modelling of the population densities. Identifiability fails when the data is in fact independent and…
Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) is a foundational framework for supervised learning but primarily optimizes average-case performance, often neglecting fairness and robustness considerations. Tilted Empirical Risk Minimization (TERM)…
For constrained linear systems with bounded disturbances and parametric uncertainty, we propose a robust adaptive model predictive control strategy with online parameter estimation. Constraints enforcing persistently exciting closed loop…
This paper presents a novel algorithm for efficient online estimation of the filter derivatives in general hidden Markov models. The algorithm, which has a linear computational complexity and very limited memory requirements, is furnished…
We are interested in assessing the order of a finite-state Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with the only two assumptions that the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and that the density functions of the emission…
We formulate and analyze an inverse problem using derivatives prices to obtain an implied filtering density on volatility's hidden state. Stochastic volatility is the unobserved state in a hidden Markov model (HMM) and can be tracked using…
We consider two-state Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (NHHMMs) for forecasting univariate time series. Given a set of predictors, the time series are modeled via predictive regressions with state dependent coefficients and time-varying…
We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives…
Spurred in part by the ever-growing number of sensors and web-based methods of collecting data, the use of Intensive Longitudinal Data (ILD) is becoming more common in the social and behavioural sciences. The ILD collected in this field are…
This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…