Related papers: The Distributional Tail of Worst-Case Quickselect

We show that in a large class of stochastic volatility models with additional skew-functions (local-stochastic volatility models) the tails of the cumulative distribution of the log-returns behave as exp(-c|y|), where c is a positive…

We introduce a new family of multivariate distributions by taking the component-wise Tukey-h transformation of a random vector following a skew-normal distribution. The proposed distribution is named the skew-normal-Tukey-h distribution and…

We study the problem of Differentially Private Stochastic Convex Optimization (DP-SCO) with heavy-tailed data. Specifically, we focus on the $\ell_1$-norm linear regression in the $\epsilon$-DP model. While most of the previous work focuses…

This article introduces a non-parametric information-theoretic approach to inference about the tail of a continuous or a discrete distribution. Leveraging a new concept named tail profile -- a set of information-theoretic quantities…

Probabilistic recurrence relations (PRRs) are a standard formalism for describing the runtime of a randomized algorithm. Given a PRR and a time limit $\kappa$, we consider the classical concept of tail probability $\Pr[T \ge \kappa]$, i.e.,…

We consider the high-dimensional linear regression model and assume that a fraction of the measurements are altered by an adversary with complete knowledge of the data and the underlying distribution. We are interested in a scenario where…

We consider a modulated process S which, conditional on a background process X, has independent increments. Assuming that S drifts to -infinity and that its increments (jumps) are heavy-tailed (in a sense made precise in the paper), we…

We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…

We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…

In previous work Majda and McLaughlin computed explicit expressions for the $2N$th moments of a passive scalar advected by a linear shear flow in the form of an integral over ${\bf R}^N$. In this paper we first compute the asymptotics of…

By optimal fluctuation method, we study short-time distribution $P(\mathcal{A}=A)$ of the functionals, $\mathcal{A}=\int_{0}^{t_f} x^n(t) dt$, along constrained trajectories of random acceleration process for a given time duration $t_f$,…

We establish an upper bound on the tails of a random variable that arises as a solution of a stochastic difference equation. In the non--negative case our bound is similar to a lower bound obtained by Goldie and Gr\"ubel in 1996.

We study problem-dependent rates, i.e., generalization errors that scale near-optimally with the variance, the effective loss, or the gradient norms evaluated at the "best hypothesis." We introduce a principled framework dubbed "uniform…

High-dimensional linear regression under heavy-tailed noise or outlier corruption is challenging, both computationally and statistically. Convex approaches have been proven statistically optimal but suffer from high computational costs,…

We develop a probabilistic method for assessing the tail behavior and geometric stability of one-dimensional n i.i.d. samples by tracking how their span contracts when the most extreme points are trimmed. Central to our approach is the…

Distributional reinforcement learning (DRL) has achieved empirical success in various domains. One core task in DRL is distributional policy evaluation, which involves estimating the return distribution $\eta^\pi$ for a given policy $\pi$.…

Let $X_k$ denote the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions in a random subset of $\mathbb{Z}/N\mathbb{Z}$ or $\{1, \dots, N\}$ where every element is included independently with probability $p$. We determine the asymptotics of $\log…

Models based on assumptions of multivariate regular variation and hidden regular variation provide ways to describe a broad range of extremal dependence structures when marginal distributions are heavy tailed. Multivariate regular variation…

In the Single Source Replacement Paths (SSRP) problem we are given a graph $G = (V, E)$, and a shortest paths tree $\widehat{K}$ rooted at a node $s$, and the goal is to output for every node $t \in V$ and for every edge $e$ in…

Two old conjectures from problem sections, one of which from SIAM Review, concern the question of finding distributions that maximize P(Sn <= t), where Sn is the sum of i.i.d. random variables X1, ..., Xn on the interval [0,1], satisfying…