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This paper considers estimation and model selection of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR). Conventional quantile regression often yields undesirable crossing quantile curves, violating the monotonicity of quantiles. To address this…
This paper introduces new methods for constructing prediction intervals using quantile-based techniques. The procedures are developed for both classical (homoscedastic) autoregressive models and modern quantile autoregressive models. They…
Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given…
This article introduces a novel dynamic framework to Bayesian model averaging for time-varying parameter quantile regressions. By employing sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo, we combine empirical estimates derived from dynamically chosen…
Estimating the conditional quantile of the interested variable with respect to changes in the covariates is frequent in many economical applications as it can offer a comprehensive insight. In this paper, we propose a novel semiparametric…
Conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) is one of the most important measures of systemic risk. It is defined as the high quantile conditional on a related variable being extreme, widely used in the field of quantitative risk management. In this…
The scarcity of task-labeled time-series benchmarks in the financial domain hinders progress in continual learning. Addressing this deficit would foster innovation in this area. Therefore, we present COB, Crude Oil Benchmark datasets. COB…
The standard approach for constructing a Mean-Variance portfolio involves estimating parameters for the model using collected samples. However, since the distribution of future data may not resemble that of the training set, the…
Predicting future values at risk (fVaR) is an important problem in finance. They arise in the modelling of future initial margin requirements for counterparty credit risk and future market risk VaR. One is also interested in derived…
Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) quantifies systemic financial risk by measuring the loss quantile of one asset, conditional on another asset experiencing distress. We develop a Transformer-based methodology that integrates financial news…
Standard causal inference characterizes treatment effect through averages, but the counterfactual distributions could be different in not only the central tendency but also spread and shape. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of…
In financial risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used to estimate potential portfolio losses. VaR's limitation is its inability to account for the magnitude of losses beyond a certain threshold. Expected Shortfall (ES) addresses…
In recent years, there have been a lot of sharp changes in the oil price. These rapid changes cause the traditional models to fail in predicting the price behavior. The main reason for the failure of the traditional models is that they…
Modeling and predicting extreme movements in GDP is notoriously difficult and the selection of appropriate covariates and/or possible forms of nonlinearities are key in obtaining precise forecasts. In this paper, our focus is on using large…
Quantile regression is an increasingly important empirical tool in economics and other sciences for analyzing the impact of a set of regressors on the conditional distribution of an outcome. Extremal quantile regression, or quantile…
This paper advances a variable screening approach to enhance conditional quantile forecasts using high-dimensional predictors. We have refined and augmented the quantile partial correlation (QPC)-based variable screening proposed by Ma et…
In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…
We introduce a novel regression model for the conditional left and right tail of a possibly heavy-tailed response. The proposed model can be used to learn the effect of covariates on an extreme value setting via a Lasso-type specification…
Inverse problems aim to determine model parameters of a mathematical problem from given observational data. Neural networks can provide an efficient tool to solve these problems. In the context of Bayesian inverse problems, Uncertainty…