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The distribution of a neural network's latent representations has been successfully used to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) data. This work investigates whether this distribution moreover correlates with a model's epistemic uncertainty,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-24 Janis Postels , Hermann Blum , Yannick Strümpler , Cesar Cadena , Roland Siegwart , Luc Van Gool , Federico Tombari

We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-17 Andrew L. Allan

Large language models often generate confident but incorrect answers rather than abstaining when uncertain. This problem is particularly acute for small language models (SLMs), where computational constraints and autonomous operation…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Ashwath Vaithinathan Aravindan , Mayank Kejriwal

Despite their outstanding performance, large language models (LLMs) suffer notorious flaws related to their preference for simple, surface-level textual relations over full semantic complexity of the problem. This proposal investigates a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Michal Štefánik

Accurately quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for their reliable deployment, especially in high-stakes applications. Current state-of-the-art methods for measuring semantic uncertainty in LLMs rely on strict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yashvir S. Grewal , Edwin V. Bonilla , Thang D. Bui

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

As large language models are increasingly deployed for clinical text, ensuring they can reliably signal their own uncertainty becomes critical. Most existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are designed for open-domain generation…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Bushi Xiao , Sarvesh Soni , Daisy Zhe Wang

Large language Models (LLMs) have achieved significant breakthroughs across diverse domains; however, they can still produce unreliable or misleading outputs. For responsible LLM application, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Qihao Wen , Jiahao Wang , Yang Nan , Pengfei He , Ravi Tandon , Han Xu

Understanding how large language models (LLMs) internally represent and process their predictions is central to detecting uncertainty and preventing hallucinations. While several studies have shown that models encode uncertainty in their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Sunwoo Kim , Haneul Yoo , Alice Oh

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

Explainable AI methods facilitate the understanding of model behaviour, yet, small, imperceptible perturbations to inputs can vastly distort explanations. As these explanations are typically evaluated holistically, before model deployment,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Sara Vera Marjanović , Isabelle Augenstein , Christina Lioma

Large pre-trained language models have shown remarkable performance over the past few years. These models, however, sometimes learn superficial features from the dataset and cannot generalize to the distributions that are dissimilar to the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-31 Jieyu Zhao , Xuezhi Wang , Yao Qin , Jilin Chen , Kai-Wei Chang

Uncertainty estimation is an essential and heavily-studied component for the reliable application of semantic segmentation methods. While various studies exist claiming methodological advances on the one hand, and successful application on…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Kim-Celine Kahl , Carsten T. Lüth , Maximilian Zenk , Klaus Maier-Hein , Paul F. Jaeger

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been transformative across many domains. However, hallucination, i.e., confidently outputting incorrect information, remains one of the leading challenges for LLMs. This raises the question of how to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Toghrul Abbasli , Kentaroh Toyoda , Yuan Wang , Leon Witt , Muhammad Asif Ali , Yukai Miao , Dan Li , Qingsong Wei

We show that language models hallucinate not because they fail to detect uncertainty, but because of a failure to integrate it into output generation. Across architectures, uncertain inputs are reliably identified, occupying…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Valeria Ruscio , Keiran Thompson

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive fluency, but often produce critical errors known as "hallucinations". Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are a promising tool for coping with this fundamental shortcoming. Yet, existing…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed and democratized on edge devices. To improve the efficiency of on-device deployment, small language models (SLMs) are often adopted due to their efficient decoding latency and reduced…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Yu-Neng Chuang , Leisheng Yu , Guanchu Wang , Lizhe Zhang , Zirui Liu , Xuanting Cai , Yang Sui , Vladimir Braverman , Xia Hu

The literature has proposed various robust alternatives to empirical risk minimisation to address failure modes such as distribution shift, label noise and finite-sample degeneracies. Examples include distributionally robust optimization,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Jonas Hanselle , Valentin Margraf , Clemens Damke , Eyke Hüllermeier

This paper proposes a paradigm of uncertainty injection for training deep learning model to solve robust optimization problems. The majority of existing studies on deep learning focus on the model learning capability, while assuming the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-28 Wei Cui , Wei Yu

Subset selection-based methods are widely used to explain deep vision models: they attribute predictions by highlighting the most influential image regions and support object-level explanations. While these methods perform well in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Madhav Gupta , Vishak Prasad C , Ganesh Ramakrishnan