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Bayesian model comparison implements Occam's razor through its sensitivity to the prior. However, prior-dependence makes it important to assess the influence of plausible alternative priors. Such prior sensitivity analyses for the Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Zixiao Hu , Jason D. McEwen

INteger Auto-Regressive (INAR) processes are usually defined by specifying the innovations and the operator, which often leads to difficulties in deriving marginal properties of the process. In many practical situations, a major modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-21 Matheus B. Guerrero , Wagner Barreto-Souza , Hernando Ombao

Gaussian graphical models are useful tools for conditional independence structure inference of multivariate random variables. Unfortunately, Bayesian inference of latent graph structures is challenging due to exponential growth of…

Variable selection, or more generally, model reduction is an important aspect of the statistical workflow aiming to provide insights from data. In this paper, we discuss and demonstrate the benefits of using a reference model in variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-29 Federico Pavone , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

This paper introduces an integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH) model based on the novel geometric distribution and discusses some of its properties. The parameter estimation problem of the models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Divya Kuttenchalil Andrews , N. Balakrishna

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in nonparametric regression, classification and spatio-temporal modeling, motivated in part by a rich literature on theoretical properties. However, a well known drawback of GPs that limits their use…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-29 Anjishnu Banerjee , David Dunson , Surya Tokdar

Gaussian stochastic process (GaSP) has been widely used in two fundamental problems in uncertainty quantification, namely the emulation and calibration of mathematical models. Some objective priors, such as the reference prior, are studied…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-11 Mengyang Gu

We propose a new empirical Bayes approach for inference in the $p \gg n$ normal linear model. The novelty is the use of data in the prior in two ways, for centering and regularization. Under suitable sparsity assumptions, we establish a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-06 Ryan Martin , Raymond Mess , Stephen G. Walker

The problem of estimating a parametric or nonparametric regression function in a model with normal errors is considered. For this purpose, a novel objective prior for the regression function is proposed, defined as the distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-13 Wicher Bergsma

This paper introduces a new neural network based prior for real valued functions on $\mathbb R^d$ which, by construction, is more easily and cheaply scaled up in the domain dimension $d$ compared to the usual Karhunen-Lo\`eve function space…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-09 Torben Sell , Sumeetpal S. Singh

The traditional two-stage approach to causal inference first identifies a single causal model (or equivalence class of models), which is then used to answer causal queries. However, this neglects any epistemic model uncertainty. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Christian Toth , Christian Knoll , Franz Pernkopf , Robert Peharz

Advances in sensing technology have made it possible to collect large volumes of high-dimensional time-series data. In fields like genetics and neuroscience, key questions concern whether directed relationships between variables can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Sarah E. Heaps , Ian H. Jermyn , Yujiang Wang , Darren J. Wilkinson

Bayesian inverse problems use observed data to update a prior probability distribution for an unknown state or parameter of a scientific system to a posterior distribution conditioned on the data. In many applications, the unknown parameter…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Josie König , Elizabeth Qian , Melina A. Freitag

Gaussian graphical regressions have emerged as a powerful approach for regressing the precision matrix of a Gaussian graphical model on covariates, which, unlike traditional Gaussian graphical models, can help determine how graphs are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-17 Xuran Meng , Jingfei Zhang , Yi Li

The first-order autoregressive process, AR (1), has been widely used and implemented in time series analysis. Different estimation methods have been employed in order to estimate the autoregressive parameter. This article focuses on…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-29 Hossein Masoumi Karakani , Janet van Niekerk , Paul van Staden

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

Inference for doubly intractable distributions is challenging because the intractable normalizing functions of these models include parameters of interest. Previous auxiliary variable MCMC algorithms are infeasible for multi-dimensional…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-07 Jaewoo Park

The analysis of non-real-valued data, such as binary time series, has attracted great interest in recent years. This manuscript proposes a post-selection estimator for estimating the coefficient matrices of a high-dimensional generalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-03 Dehao Dai , Yunyi Zhang

In a modern observational study based on healthcare databases, the number of observations and of predictors typically range in the order of $10^5$ ~ $10^6$ and of $10^4$ ~ $10^5$. Despite the large sample size, data rarely provide…

Computation · Statistics 2022-03-30 Akihiko Nishimura , Marc A. Suchard

Inference for GP models with non-Gaussian noises is computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. Many recent inference methods approximate the posterior distribution with a simpler distribution defined on a small number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Linfeng Liu , Liping Liu