Related papers: Forecasting Return Time of Extreme Precipitation b…
Forecasting global precipitation patterns and, in particular, extreme precipitation events is of critical importance to preparing for and adapting to climate change. Making accurate high-resolution precipitation forecasts using traditional…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
Precipitation nowcasting is crucial across various industries and plays a significant role in mitigating and adapting to climate change. We introduce an efficient deep learning model for precipitation nowcasting, capable of predicting…
Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…
Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…
Landau hydrodynamics is a plausible description for the evolution of the dense hot matter produced in high-energy heavy-ion collisions. We review the formulation of Landau hydrodynamics to pave the way for its application in high-energy…
Natural climate variability, captured through multiple initial condition ensembles, may be comparable to the variability caused by knowledge gaps in future emissions trajectories and in the physical science basis, especially at…
Systematic biases in General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs limit their direct applicability in regional planning, making bias correction a technically demanding but necessary step for both short-term and long-term impact assessment.…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
The hazard of pluvial flooding is largely influenced by the spatial and temporal dependence characteristics of precipitation. When extreme precipitation possesses strong spatial dependence, the risk of flooding is amplified due to catchment…
We propose a method for the accurate estimation of rare event or failure probabilities for expensive-to-evaluate numerical models in high dimensions. The proposed approach combines ideas from large deviation theory and adaptive importance…
The distribution of recurrence times or return intervals between extreme events is important to characterize and understand the behavior of physical systems and phenomena in many disciplines. It is well known that many physical processes in…
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…
Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…
Extreme precipitation causes severe societal and economic damage, and weather control has long been discussed as a potential mitigation strategy. However, to the best of our knowledge, perturbation-based interventions for weather control…
Modeling precipitation and its accumulation over time and space is essential for flood risk assessment. In this paper, we analyze rainfall data collected over several years through a micro-scale precipitation sensor network in Montpellier,…
Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…
Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on point-wise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated…
We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…
Accurate weather prediction is essential for many aspects of life, notably the early warning of extreme weather events such as rainstorms. Short-term predictions of these events rely on forecasts from numerical weather models, in which,…