Related papers: Multistability and intermingledness in complex hig…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
Here we define natural chaotic systems, like the earths weather and climate system, as chaotic systems which are open to the world so have constantly changing boundary conditions, and measurements of their states are subject to errors. In…
When a system has more than one stable state, how can the stability of these states be compared? This deceptively simple question has important consequences for ecosystems, because systems with alternative stable states can undergo dramatic…
For a wide range of values of the incoming solar radiation, the Earth features at least two attracting states, which correspond to competing climates. The warm climate is analogous to the present one; the snowball climate features global…
Microbial communities routinely have several alternative stable states observed for the same environmental parameters. Sudden and irreversible transitions between these states make external manipulation of these systems more complicated. To…
Due to spatial scarcity and uncertainties in sediment data, initial and boundary conditions in deep-time climate simulations are not well constrained. On the other hand, the climate is a nonlinear system with a multitude of feedback…
This topic review communicates working experiences regarding interaction of a multiplicity of processes. Our experiences come from climate change modelling, materials science, cell physiology and public health, and macroeconomic modelling.…
Multi-stability is a widely observed phenomenon in real complex networked systems, such as technological infrastructures, ecological systems, gene regulation, transportation and more. When a system functions normally but there exists also a…
In neuroscience, optics and condensed matter there is ample physical evidence for multistable dynamical systems, that is, systems with a large number of attractors. The known mathematical mechanisms that lead to multiple attractors are…
We quantitatively characterize the metastability in a multi-phase lattice Boltzmann model. The structure factor of density fluctuations is theoretically obtained and numerically verified to a high precision, for all simulated wave-vectors…
Many parts of the Earth system are thought to have multiple stable equilibrium states, with the potential for rapid and sometimes catastrophic shifts between them. The most common frameworks for analyzing stability changes, however, require…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
The recent framework of performative prediction is aimed at capturing settings where predictions influence the target/outcome they want to predict. In this paper, we introduce a natural multi-agent version of this framework, where multiple…
Tipping points are one of the hot topics in modern physics of complex systems. But what is a tipping point? A generic definition declares it as ``a state of the system where a small change in its parameters can lead to a significant change…
Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied as their activation would impose a considerable…
As climate change intensifies, the urgency for accurate global-scale disaster predictions grows. This research presents a novel multimodal disaster prediction framework, combining weather statistics, satellite imagery, and textual insights.…
Multistability -- the emergence of multiple stable states under identical conditions -- is a hallmark of nonlinear complexity and an enabling mechanism for multilevel optical memory and photonic computing. Its realization in a compact…
The climate system's nonlinear dynamics is influenced by various external forcings and internal feedbacks that can give rise to regional and even global tipping points that may lead to significant and potentially irreversible changes.…
In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…