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The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Masahiro Kato , Fumiaki Kozai , Ryo Inokuchi

In a nonparametric instrumental regression model, we strengthen the conventional moment independence assumption towards full statistical independence between instrument and error term. This allows us to prove identification results and…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-06-13 Isaac Loh

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from high-dimensional, observational data with unobserved confounders. Unobserved confounders introduce ignorance -- a level of unidentifiability -- about an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-02 Andrew Jesson , Sören Mindermann , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

Recently it has become popular to learn sparse Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) by imposing l1 or group l1,2 penalties on the elements of the precision matrix. Thispenalized likelihood approach results in a tractable convex optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-05-14 Benjamin Marlin , Mark Schmidt , Kevin Murphy

Graph-based causal discovery methods aim to capture conditional independencies consistent with the observed data and differentiate causal relationships from indirect or induced ones. Successful construction of graphical models of data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-08 Boris Hayete , Fred Gruber , Anna Decker , Raymond Yan

Identifying structural parameters in linear simultaneous-equation models is a longstanding challenge. Recent work exploits information in higher-order moments of non-Gaussian data. In this literature, the structural errors are typically…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-11 Ziyu Jiang

Conditional effect estimation has great scientific and policy importance because interventions may impact subjects differently depending on their characteristics. Most research has focused on estimating the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

Calibration$\unicode{x2014}$the problem of ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed class frequencies$\unicode{x2014}$is a basic desideratum for reliable prediction with machine learning systems. Calibration error is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-02 Eugène Berta , Sacha Braun , David Holzmüller , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Accurately predicting conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is crucial in personalized medicine and digital platform analytics. Since the treatments of interest often cannot be directly randomized, observational data is leveraged to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Miruna Oprescu , Nathan Kallus

This paper considers estimating functional-coefficient models in panel quantile regression with individual effects, allowing the cross-sectional and temporal dependence for large panel observations. A latent group structure is imposed on…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-03-24 Xiaorong Yang , Jia Chen , Degui Li , Runze Li

Latent factor models are widely used to measure unobserved latent traits in social and behavioral sciences, including psychology, education, and marketing. When used in a confirmatory manner, design information is incorporated, yielding…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-14 Yunxiao Chen , Xiaoou Li , Siliang Zhang

We extend Gaussian perturbation models in classical functional data analysis to the three-dimensional rotational group where a zero-mean Gaussian process in the Lie algebra under the Lie exponential spreads multiplicatively around a central…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-19 Fabian J. E. Telschow , Stephan F. Huckemann , Michael R. Pierrynowski

Estimating long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational and short-term experimental data is a crucial but challenging problem in many real-world scenarios. In existing methods, several ideal assumptions, e.g. latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-12 Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Weilin Chen , Zeqin Yang , Zijian Li , Peng Zhen , Jiecheng Guo

When an exposure of interest is confounded by unmeasured factors, an instrumental variable (IV) can be used to identify and estimate certain causal contrasts. Identification of the marginal average treatment effect (ATE) from IVs relies on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-02 Alexander W. Levis , Matteo Bonvini , Zhenghao Zeng , Luke Keele , Edward H. Kennedy

It is common in medical studies that the outcome of interest is truncated by death, meaning that a subject has died before the outcome could be measured. In this case, restricted analysis among survivors may be subject to selection bias.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-25 Linbo Wang , Xiao-Hua Zhou , Thomas S. Richardson

We study the application of the grouped fixed effects approach to binary choice models for panel data in presence of severe complete separation. Through data loss, complete separation may lead to biased estimates of Average Partial Effects…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-07 Claudia Pigini , Alessandro Pionati , Francesco Valentini

We study linear peer effects models where peers interact in groups, individual's outcomes are linear in the group mean outcome and characteristics, and group effects are random. Our specification is motivated by the moment conditions…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-04-27 Guido M. Kuersteiner , Ingmar R. Prucha , Ying Zeng

We consider semi-supervised binary classification for applications in which data points are naturally grouped (e.g., survey responses grouped by state) and the labeled data is biased (e.g., survey respondents are not representative of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Daniel Zeiberg , Shantanu Jain , Predrag Radivojac

Nonseparable panel models are important in a variety of economic settings, including discrete choice. This paper gives identification and estimation results for nonseparable models under time homogeneity conditions that are like "time is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Victor Chernozhukov , Ivan Fernandez-Val , Jinyong Hahn , Whitney Newey

Recovering causal structure in the presence of latent variables is an important but challenging task. While many methods have been proposed to handle it, most of them require strict and/or untestable assumptions on the causal structure. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Wei Chen , Linjun Peng , Zhiyi Huang , Haoyue Dai , Zhifeng Hao , Ruichu Cai , Kun Zhang