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We target the problem of accuracy and robustness in causal inference from finite data sets. Some state-of-the-art algorithms produce clear output complete with solid theoretical guarantees but are susceptible to propagating erroneous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

We consider Bayesian optimization of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box objective function, where we also have access to cheaper approximations of the objective. In general, such approximations arise in applications such as reinforcement…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-16 Matthias Poloczek , Jialei Wang , Peter I. Frazier

Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) provides a principled framework for selecting observations or experiments. We introduce new Bayesian design criteria based on the expected Wasserstein-$p$ distance between the prior and posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Tapio Helin , Youssef Marzouk , Jose Rodrigo Rojo-Garcia

In the Bayesian literature on model comparison, Bayes factors play the leading role. In the classical statistical literature, model selection criteria are often devised used cross-validation ideas. Amalgamating the ideas of Bayes factor and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-12 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The relevance of determinacy coefficients as indicators for the validity of factor score predictors has regularly been emphasized. Previous simulation studies revealed biased determinacy coefficients for factor score predictors based on…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-12 André Beauducel , Norbert Hilger , Anneke Weide

This paper proposes an information-based inference method for partially identified parameters in incomplete models that is valid both when the model is correctly specified and when it is misspecified. Key features of the method are: (i) it…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-25 Hiroaki Kaido , Francesca Molinari

For decomposable score-based structure learning of Bayesian networks, existing approaches first compute a collection of candidate parent sets for each variable and then optimize over this collection by choosing one parent set for each…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-07-20 Cassio P. de Campos , Mauro Scanagatta , Giorgio Corani , Marco Zaffalon

Factorized Information Criterion (FIC) is a recently developed information criterion, based on which a novel model selection methodology, namely Factorized Asymptotic Bayesian (FAB) Inference, has been developed and successfully applied to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-02 Shaohua Li

Bayesian inference provides a natural framework for updating knowledge as new information becomes available, often in a sequential manner by incorporating datasets in stages or reusing previous posteriors as priors. In practice, this is…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2026-05-22 Lipei Du

This work introduces a refinement of the Parsimonious Model for fitting a Gaussian Mixture. The improvement is based on the consideration of clusters of the involved covariance matrices according to a criterion, such as sharing Principal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-10 David Rodríguez-Vítores , Carlos Matrán

In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian multiple testing formulation for model and variable selection in inverse setups, judiciously embedding the idea of inverse reference distributions proposed by Bhattacharya (2013) in a mixture…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-16 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

We explore the effect of finite population sampling in design problems with many variables cross-classified in many ways. In particular, we investigate designs where we wish to sample individuals belonging to different groups for which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-30 Simon C. Shaw , Michael Goldstein

Data in the form of ranking lists are frequently encountered, and combining ranking results from different sources can potentially generate a better ranking list and help understand behaviors of the rankers. Of interest here are the rank…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-20 Xinran Li , Dingdong Yi , Jun S. Liu

When performing regression or classification, we are interested in the conditional probability distribution for an outcome or class variable Y given a set of explanatoryor input variables X. We consider Bayesian models for this task. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-08 David Heckerman , Christopher Meek

Determining how to appropriately select the tuning parameter is essential in penalized likelihood methods for high-dimensional data analysis. We examine this problem in the setting of penalized likelihood methods for generalized linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-12 Yingying Fan , Cheng Yong Tang

Model selection based on classical information criteria, such as BIC, is generally computationally demanding, but its properties are well studied. On the other hand, model selection based on parameter shrinkage by $\ell_1$-type penalties is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-07-10 Kun Zhang , Heng Peng , Laiwan Chan , Aapo Hyvarinen

Motivated by examples from genetic association studies, this paper considers the model selection problem in a general complex linear model system and in a Bayesian framework. We discuss formulating model selection problems and incorporating…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-14 Xiaoquan Wen

Vector autoregressive (VAR) processes are ubiquitously used in economics, finance, and biology. Order selection is an essential step in fitting VAR models. While many order selection methods exist, all come with weaknesses. Order selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-26 Michael Hellstern , Ali Shojaie

In multivariate extreme value statistics, the first step in understanding the dependence structure of extremes is identifying the directions in which they occur. The novelty of this paper is the analysis of high-dimensional extreme value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Lucas Butsch , Vicky Fasen-Hartmann

Recent literature provides many computational and modeling approaches for covariance matrices estimation in a penalized Gaussian graphical models but relatively little study has been carried out on the choice of the tuning parameter. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-08 Heng Lian