Related papers: Climate-Aware Copula Models for Sovereign Rating M…
Copula-based time series models can model univariate and stationary time series in a flexible way by decomposing the joint distribution of consecutive observations into a copula and the stationary distribution. Implicitly this approach…
We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all…
In the copula-based approach to univariate time series modeling, the finite dimensional temporal dependence of a stationary time series is captured by a copula. Recent studies investigate how copula-based time series models can be…
We propose a new copula model for replicated multivariate spatial data. Unlike classical models that assume multivariate normality of the data, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that some factors exist that affect the joint…
Recent financial disasters have emphasised the need to accurately predict extreme financial losses and their consequences for the institutions belonging to a given financial market. The ability of econometric models to predict extreme…
Copulas provide an attractive approach for constructing multivariate distributions with flexible marginal distributions and different forms of dependences. Of particular importance in many areas is the possibility of explicitly forecasting…
Cylindrical data frequently arise across various scientific disciplines, including meteorology (e.g., wind direction and speed), oceanography (e.g., marine current direction and speed or wave heights), ecology (e.g., telemetry), and…
Fully describing the entire data set is essential in multivariate risk assessment, since moderate levels of one variable can influence another, potentially leading it to be extreme. Additionally, modelling both non-extreme and extreme…
We introduce a novel forecasting model for crop yields that explicitly accounts for spatio-temporal dependence and the influence of extreme weather and climatic events. Our approach combines Bayesian Structural Time Series for modeling…
This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences…
We are studying the problems of modeling and inference for multivariate count time series data with Poisson marginals. The focus is on linear and log-linear models. For studying the properties of such processes we develop a novel conceptual…
In this article, a copula-based method for mixed regression models is proposed, where the conditional distribution of the response variable, given covariates, is modelled by a parametric family of continuous or discrete distributions, and…
We develop a novel multi-factor copula model for multivariate spatial extremes, which is designed to capture the different combinations of marginal and cross-extremal dependence structures within and across different spatial random fields.…
We develop factor copula models for analysing the dependence among mixed continuous and discrete responses. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas that involve both observed and latent variables, hence they allow tail, asymmetric…
We introduce a general approach for modeling the dynamic of multivariate time series when the data are of mixed type (binary/count/continuous). Our method is quite flexible and conditionally on past values, each coordinate at time $t$ can…
Copulas are popular as models for multivariate dependence because they allow the marginal densities and the joint dependence to be modeled separately. However, they usually require that the transformation from uniform marginals to the…
Several collective risk models have recently been proposed by relaxing the widely used but controversial assumption of independence between claim frequency and severity. Approaches include the bivariate copula model, random effect model,…
Study of recurrences in earthquakes, climate, financial time-series, etc. is crucial to better forecast disasters and limit their consequences. However, almost all the previous phenomenological studies involved only a long-ranged…
A standard quantitative method to access credit risk employs a factor model based on joint multivariate normal distribution properties. By extending a one-factor Gaussian copula model to make a more accurate default forecast, this paper…
Copulas. We study the model risk of multivariate risk models in a comprehensive empirical study on Copula-GARCH models used for forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. To determine whether model risk inherent in the forecasting of…