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Data-driven control in unknown environments requires a clear understanding of the involved uncertainties for ensuring safety and efficient exploration. While aleatoric uncertainty that arises from measurement noise can often be explicitly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Neha Das , Jonas Umlauft , Armin Lederer , Thomas Beckers , Sandra Hirche

Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease with different molecular subtypes, clinical behavior, treatment responses as well as survival outcomes. The development of a reliable, accurate, available and inexpensive method to predict the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Mohaddeseh Chegini , Ali Mahloojifar

Automatic classification of diabetic retinopathy from retinal images has been widely studied using deep neural networks with impressive results. However, there is a clinical need for estimation of the uncertainty in the classifications, a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-02-03 Joel Jaskari , Jaakko Sahlsten , Theodoros Damoulas , Jeremias Knoblauch , Simo Särkkä , Leo Kärkkäinen , Kustaa Hietala , Kimmo Kaski

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

In this work, we introduce Entropy Area Score (EAS), a simple yet effective metric to quantify uncertainty in the answer generation process of reasoning large language models (LLMs). EAS requires neither external models nor repeated…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Yongfu Zhu , Lin Sun , Guangxiang Zhao , Weihong Lin , Xiangzheng Zhang

Virtual Diagnostic (VD) is a computational tool based on deep learning that can be used to predict a diagnostic output. VDs are especially useful in systems where measuring the output is invasive, limited, costly or runs the risk of…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2021-08-04 Owen Convery , Lewis Smith , Yarin Gal , Adi Hanuka

Deep neural networks, despite their remarkable success, remain fundamentally limited in their ability to perform Continual Learning (CL). While most current methods aim to enhance the capabilities of a single model, Inspired by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-01 Aojun Lu , Junchao Ke , Chunhui Ding , Jiahao Fan , Jiancheng Lv , Yanan Sun

We study the sparse entropy-regularized reinforcement learning (ERL) problem in which the entropy term is a special form of the Tsallis entropy. The optimal policy of this formulation is sparse, i.e.,~at each state, it has non-zero…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-02-13 Ofir Nachum , Yinlam Chow , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh

Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Ramzi Dakhmouche , Adrien Letellier , Hossein Gorji

Extreme learning machine (ELM) as an emerging branch of shallow networks has shown its excellent generalization and fast learning speed. However, for blended data, the robustness of ELM is weak because its weights and biases of hidden nodes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-09-24 Bo Han , Bo He , Mengmeng Ma , Tingting Sun , Tianhong Yan , Amaury Lendasse

We provide single-model estimates of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for deep neural networks. To estimate aleatoric uncertainty, we propose Simultaneous Quantile Regression (SQR), a loss function to learn all the conditional quantiles…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-09 Natasa Tagasovska , David Lopez-Paz

Characterizing aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty on the predicted rewards can help in building reliable reinforcement learning (RL) systems. Aleatoric uncertainty results from the irreducible environment stochasticity leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Bertrand Charpentier , Ransalu Senanayake , Mykel Kochenderfer , Stephan Günnemann

Pretrained models have become standard in both vision and language, yet they typically do not provide reliable measures of confidence. Existing uncertainty estimation methods, such as deep ensembles and MC dropout, are often too…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Yongchan Chun , Chanhee Park , Jeongho Yoon , Jaehyung Seo , Heuiseok Lim

Uncertainty-quantification methods are applied to estimate the confidence of deep-neural-networks classifiers over their predictions. However, most widely used methods are known to be overconfident. We address this problem by developing an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Luigi Sbailò , Luca M. Ghiringhelli

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential in medical AI. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) offers a computationally efficient way to quantify model uncertainty alongside predictions, unlike traditional methods such as Monte Carlo…

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Maryam Saleki

When deployed for risk-sensitive tasks, deep neural networks must include an uncertainty estimation mechanism. Here we examine the relationship between deep architectures and their respective training regimes, with their corresponding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-24 Ido Galil , Mohammed Dabbah , Ran El-Yaniv

Measurement of uncertainty of predictions from machine learning methods is important across scientific domains and applications. We present, to our knowledge, the first such technique that quantifies the uncertainty of predictions from a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-04 Alex Hagen , Karl Pazdernik , Nicole LaHaye , Marjolein Oostrom

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a pivotal challenge in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), profoundly impacting decision-making, risk assessment and model reliability. In this paper, we introduce Credal and Interval Deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Michele Caprio , Shireen K. Manchingal , Fabio Cuzzolin

Active Learning (AL) aims to enhance the performance of deep models by selecting the most informative samples for annotation from a pool of unlabeled data. Despite impressive performance in closed-set settings, most AL methods fail in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-22 Bardia Safaei , Vibashan VS , Celso M. de Melo , Vishal M. Patel