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The earth system is exceedingly complex and often chaotic in nature, making prediction incredibly challenging: we cannot expect to make perfect predictions all of the time. Instead, we look for specific states of the system that lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-05 Elizabeth A. Barnes , Randal J. Barnes

Probabilistic classifiers are central for making informed decisions under uncertainty. Based on the maximum expected utility principle, optimal decision rules can be derived using the posterior class probabilities and misclassification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Alexandre Perez-Lebel , Gael Varoquaux , Sanmi Koyejo , Matthieu Doutreligne , Marine Le Morvan

Runtime analysis, as a branch of the theory of AI, studies how the number of iterations algorithms take before finding a solution (its runtime) depends on the design of the algorithm and the problem structure. Drift analysis is a…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Per Kristian Lehre , Shishen Lin

Bayesian optimization usually assumes that a Bayesian prior is given. However, the strong theoretical guarantees in Bayesian optimization are often regrettably compromised in practice because of unknown parameters in the prior. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-26 Zi Wang , Beomjoon Kim , Leslie Pack Kaelbling

We revisit the sequential variants of linear regression with the squared loss, classification problems with hinge loss, and logistic regression, all characterized by unbounded losses in the setup where no assumptions are made on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-08 Jian Qian , Alexander Rakhlin , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

Prediction of post-loan default is an important task in credit risk management, and can be addressed by detection of financial anomalies using machine learning. This study introduces a ResE-BiLSTM model, using a sliding window technique,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Yue Yang , Yuxiang Lin , Ying Zhang , Zihan Su , Chang Chuan Goh , Tangtangfang Fang , Anthony Graham Bellotti , Boon Giin Lee

Training deep learning neural networks often requires massive amounts of computational ressources. We propose to sequentially monitor network predictions to trigger retraining only if the predictions are no longer valid. This can reduce…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-30 Ansgar Steland

We study the tail behavior of regret in stochastic multi-armed bandits for algorithms that are asymptotically optimal in expectation. While minimizing expected regret is the classical objective, recent work shows that even such algorithms…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Subhodip Panda , Shubhada Agrawal

Recent studies in reinforcement learning (RL) have made significant progress by leveraging function approximation to alleviate the sample complexity hurdle for better performance. Despite the success, existing provably efficient algorithms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Nikki Lijing Kuang , Ming Yin , Mengdi Wang , Yu-Xiang Wang , Yi-An Ma

In this short technical note we propose a baseline for decision-aware learning for contextual linear optimization, which solves stochastic linear optimization when cost coefficients can be predicted based on context information. We propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-10 Connor Lawless , Angela Zhou

In this paper, we consider the time-varying Bayesian optimization problem. The unknown function at each time is assumed to lie in an RKHS (reproducing kernel Hilbert space) with a bounded norm. We adopt the general variation budget model to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Xingyu Zhou , Ness Shroff

We study online control of time-varying linear systems with unknown dynamics in the nonstochastic control model. At a high level, we demonstrate that this setting is \emph{qualitatively harder} than that of either unknown time-invariant or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-17 Edgar Minasyan , Paula Gradu , Max Simchowitz , Elad Hazan

A crucial task in predictive maintenance is estimating the remaining useful life of physical systems. In the last decade, deep learning has improved considerably upon traditional model-based and statistical approaches in terms of predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Luca Della Libera , Jacopo Andreoli , Davide Dalle Pezze , Mirco Ravanelli , Gian Antonio Susto

Many Neural Network Pruning approaches consist of several iterative training and pruning steps, seemingly losing a significant amount of their performance after pruning and then recovering it in the subsequent retraining phase. Recent works…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-14 Max Zimmer , Christoph Spiegel , Sebastian Pokutta

In critical decision support systems based on medical imaging, the reliability of AI-assisted decision-making is as relevant as predictive accuracy. Although deep learning models have demonstrated significant accuracy, they frequently…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Hua Xu , Julián D. Arias-Londoño , Juan I. Godino-Llorente

We study lifelong reinforcement learning (RL) in a regret minimization setting of linear contextual Markov decision process (MDP), where the agent needs to learn a multi-task policy while solving a streaming sequence of tasks. We propose an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-02 Sanae Amani , Lin F. Yang , Ching-An Cheng

In learning theory, the performance of an online policy is commonly measured in terms of the static regret metric, which compares the cumulative loss of an online policy to that of an optimal benchmark in hindsight. In the definition of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-08-23 Ativ Joshi , Abhishek Sinha

Optimization models used to make discrete decisions often contain uncertain parameters that are context-dependent and estimated through prediction. To account for the quality of the decision made based on the prediction, decision-focused…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Noah Schutte , Krzysztof Postek , Neil Yorke-Smith

Decision-Focused Learning (DFL) trains predictors to improve downstream decision quality, but computing regret gradients typically requires differentiating through solvers or relying on surrogate losses, which can be computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Junhyeong Lee , Sangjin Jin , Yongjae Lee